Section 3 Archive - Global Tipping Points

Chapter 3.1 Aakre, S., Kallbekken, S., Van Dingenen, R., & Victor, D. G. (2018). Incentives for small clubs of Arctic countries to limit black carbon and methane emissions. Nature Climate Change, 8(1), 85–90. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0030-8 Aklin, M., & Mildenberger, M. (2020). Prisoners of the Wrong Dilemma: Why Distributive Conflict, Not Collective Action, Characterizes the Politics of Climate […]

ESTP impact governance is currently underdeveloped, both in research and practice. Research and knowledge co-production on this topic are urgently needed as well as corresponding capacity-building among relevant stakeholders across scales – for example, global, regional and national governance institutions for climate change adaptation. Several distinct characteristics of ESTPs pose formidable challenges for impact governance, […]

Climate change adaptation and mitigation measures have led to resistance from local social groups in the past, as they are often implemented top-down even where participatory language is used, entailing relocation, privatisation of resources, threats to traditional identities and norms, subordination and norm compliance, further weakening the agency of already-vulnerable groups (Woroniecki et al., 2019; […]

As outlined in Chapter 1.5, the linkages between different ESTPs create the potential for cascading dynamics, where one tipping process triggers one or more others. The same cascading potential exists in highly connected human systems – i.e. complex networks of economic, technological and social interactions that span across borders and sectors, underpin the functioning of […]

Monitoring and early warning systems (EWS) aim to indicate and signal when tipping points are being approached. Anticipatory ESTP impact governance in the current pre-tipping phase (see Figure 3.3.1) should include the development of EWS that can provide timely information about changes in Earth systems that can guide decision making. Current evidence regarding the proximity […]

Responding effectively to ESTPs requires drawing on the competences and resources of actors at multiple levels, usually embedded in different organisational networks. It is important that these linkages between actors at various levels and organisations are established and functioning before a response is required (i.e. in the pre-tipping phase 1 of a tipping process, see […]

The core objective of impact governance for ESTPs is to prevent or minimise harm from potential tipping processes, with a special focus on preventing impact cascades. Mirroring existing objectives of adaptation and disaster preparedness, governance in this domain should aim to reduce risk and vulnerability, strengthen resilience, increase preparedness and adaptive capacity, and foster anticipatory […]

Guided by these challenges and the principles introduced in Chapter 3.1, especially anticipation, polycentricity/multi-scale governance, systemic risk governance, and equity and justice, here we explore where and how impact governance related to ESTPs could take place. We begin with a discussion of multiple objectives of impact governance and how to prioritise these (3.3.3.1). Sub-section 3.3.3.2 […]

An additional challenge is that transgressing certain ESTPs or multiple interacting tipping points may trigger not only direct impacts, but also secondary impacts or impact cascades. This can include negative social tipping points (see Chapter 2.3 and 2.4). For instance, as a result of AMOC collapse, equatorial zones could experience ‘unliveable’ heat, failing agriculture and […]

Key messages Recommendations Summary Governance efforts to address the specific and severe threats of Earth system tipping points (ESTPs) are currently lacking and urgently needed. A future governance framework for ESTPs should prioritise efforts to prevent tipping events, while also minimising impact-related harms, fostering adaptation and resilience, and facilitating knowledge co-production. Failure to prevent tipping […]

This chapter has addressed knowledge production challenges related to ESTPs and their implications for effective science-policy interactions. Tipping processes are features of complex systems that present profound learning challenges that can undermine the development of actionable knowledge among decision makers and slow down urgently needed governance efforts. Attention to tipping points has grown in recent […]

Knowledge co-production and mobilisation at the science-policy interface is never a-political, but shaped by power relations, social contexts, existing political interests, and values. Political interests often affect what kind of knowledge is produced, for example through public research funding, explicit invitations for reports (such as the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5ºC) or scientific advice, as […]

Being able to provide and make use of early warning signals (EWS) of approaching ESTPs would be a strong signal for an effective science-policy interface. The main purpose of early warning systems is to alert decision makers to impending changes to enable a rapid adjustment of governance and decision making, e.g. kicking preparations for mitigation […]

The full range of existing science-policy engagement processes across multiple scales of governance are relevant for fostering engagement and knowledge building on ESTPs. At the global scale, this places intergovernmental scientific assessment bodies like the IPCC and IPBES and their relationships to political negotiation and decision-making institutions (e.g. UNFCCC, CBD) into the spotlight. Below, we […]

Linear models of knowledge transfer from science to policy are outdated and have limited explanatory power (Beck, 2011; Beck and Oomen, 2021), but this conception continues to structure current science-policy interfaces, including the IPCC-UNFCCC relationship. Conceiving of the science-policy interface in terms of knowledge (and governance) co-production (Jasanoff, 2004; Miller, 2004; Bremer and Meisch, 2017) […]

Knowledge production to support the governance of Earth system tipping processes should be multi-, inter- and trans-disciplinary to facilitate knowledge co-production between scientific and non-scientific actors and provide concrete decision support tools (Thompson et al., 2017;  Mach et al., 2020; Latulippe and Klenk 2020; Turnhout et al., 2020; Pohl et al., 2021). Co-production can be […]

For knowledge related to Earth system tipping to be useful in governance processes, it has to be solutions-focused (O’Brien, 2013), actionable, relevant to the actor in question, and legitimate (Cash et al., 2003). While these criteria apply to knowledge production for sustainability more generally, anticipatory and transformative capacities should be added and emphasised in the […]

Much research on tipping points has focused on global and damaging biophysical trends, rather than on the human and social dimensions of Earth system tipping, including likely social impacts, responses, solutions and governance options. Future knowledge production should consider not only the content, but also the characteristics, of the information needed to support decision making. […]

Tipping points present a set of specific learning challenges that could undermine governance efforts. Nonlinear state changes are a feature of many complex Earth system components (Young, 2012; 2017), which require complex systems thinking, often involving a fundamental change in decision makers’ assumptions about reality and the nature of change (i.e. an ontological shift) from […]

Scientific knowledge about ESTPs has expanded significantly over the last 20 years, with most of this research conducted within the natural sciences. This report’s scope provides a broader lens than previous work, including additional Earth system tipping elements (Table 1.7.1). While modelling efforts are expanding, many Earth system and climate economy models today still lack […]

Responding effectively to the current and future risks associated with Earth system tipping processes requires governance actors to leverage dynamic knowledge production systems for political decision making, policy and institutional design. The mobilisation of the ‘best available knowledge’ is recognised in the Paris Agreement (Article 7.5), encouraging interactions between different knowledge systems for enhancing climate […]

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Key Messages Recommendations Summary Knowledge production and learning related to ESTPs face significant challenges, with implications for effective science-policy interactions. Scientific knowledge about ESTPs is increasingly reflected in IPCC assessment reports, but governance actors are not yet using this growing knowledge base sufficiently. Lack of awareness, misconceptions and learning challenges limit the demand for, and […]

A tipping point involves a shift between two alternative stable states of a system, which implies not only a fundamental (identity) change of the system in question (phase 2), but often also the stability – permanence – of the altered conditions (phase 3). For many tipping points, there would be no way back to the […]

Passing ESTPs can reverse current regional trends in climate, upsetting existing expectations, adaptation frameworks and plans. Current adaptation plans and measures may be inappropriate in the face of such trend reversals, and investments in climate-resilient infrastructure might become useless. For example, in case of a collapse of the AMOC, places like Northern Europe, that are […]

Crossing ESTPs is likely to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities to climate change, many of which are the result of historical and current inequities. It would potentially also reveal new vulnerabilities, shifting the distributional impacts of climate change and other environmental harms. Despite a growing understanding of tipping points, there remain substantial uncertainties regarding their temporal evolution […]

Two time-related characteristics of tipping points create distinct challenges for impact governance. One is the acceleration of change during a tipping process (non-linearity). The other concerns the duration of the tipping process, which varies widely between different tipping systems (see Figure 3.1.1 and Table 3.3.1), from years (e.g. SPG) to decades (e.g. Amazon rainforest) and […]

Passing ESTPs can increase the magnitude of global, regional, and local changes. At the global scale, the magnitude of (eventual) sea level rise will be much increased by passing ESTPs for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and the distribution of sea level height will adjust – increasing furthest away from the ice sheet that is […]

A number of characteristics of ESTPs, especially the nonlinearity of the change process and the irreversibility of those changes, present significant challenges to current conceptions of global environmental change and the corresponding patterns and institutions to address impacts. Here, we discuss some of these characteristics in more detail. ESTPs make a major difference regarding both […]

A broad set of global governance institutions is involved in addressing the impacts of global environmental change, such as climate change. Many of these will need to consider adopting responsibilities related to ESTP impacts in their mandates. This includes, for example, the UNFCCC (adaptation, loss and damage, finance, climate resilience), the CBD, the international development […]

The geographic scope of current impact governance institutions do not always match the geographic scale of the tipping elements. Earth system tipping processes take place at large (regional or continental) scales, typically affecting multiple countries (e.g. all countries with tropical coral reefs, all countries affected by the West African monsoon), but sometimes in different ways […]

In many ways, ESTPs would exacerbate well-established climate change impacts, such as increasing global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, creating sea level rise, and more frequent and intense extreme weather events. They would worsen the disruption already experienced by ecosystems and societies in all regions of the world today (IPPC, 2022a). However, the threats related to […]

Based on current scientific assessments, including in this report (see Section 1), the likelihood of transgressing one or several ESTPs has been increasing and will likely grow substantially beyond 1.5°C warming, but no tipping process has been set in motion yet. Given that several tipping systems have been destabilised, and could be transgressed in the […]

Key Messages Recommendations Summary Given the now substantial risk of passing several Earth system tipping points (ESTPs) in the foreseeable future, it is imperative that governance actors begin to anticipate and prepare for their impacts. ESTPs present threats that are distinct from climate change as it is currently understood in important ways. We identify five […]

Prevention has to become the central objective of Earth system tipping point governance, as a means to defend and promote achievement of other societal objectives like the SDGs. Prevention efforts need to distinguish between multiple drivers of tipping processes at different scales, including non-climate drivers. Governance needs to address all types of drivers, operate on […]

Given the close relationship between the prevention of ESTPs and climate change mitigation, prevention politics are likely to mirror the politics of mitigation to a large extent. At the same time, the multi-scale nature, diverse drivers (including non-climate drivers) and distinct geographic distribution of tipping-related risks can generate a set of novel political dynamics, especially […]

While GHG emissions are the primary drivers of Earth system tipping processes, additional drivers need to be managed to avert the crossing of tipping points. For example, deforestation and land use intensification could trigger the tipping of the Amazon rainforest, while nutrient pollution and over-exploitation could lead to the rapid collapse of marine fisheries and […]

Solar geoengineering or solar radiation modification (SRM) is a group of hypothetical and controversial methods that might help decrease global temperature by directly altering the Earth’s energy balance, typically by reflecting a small fraction (around 1 per cent) of the incoming sunlight (NASEM, 2021). The best-known suggestions are Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), which would involve […]

With some exceptions (Riahi et al., 2021), the bulk of emissions pathways for reaching ambitious temperature goals still exceed the near-term carbon budget, lead to temperature overshoot, and are brought down in the latter half of the century by a speculative scale of novel carbon sinks (IPCC AR5, 2014; IPCC, 2018; IPCC AR6, 2022). Carbon […]

Outside of the UNFCCC, intergovernmental efforts to manage SLCPs are an important dimension of global climate mitigation efforts, especially because they can have short-term benefits. SLCPs, including methane, tropospheric ozone and black carbon, can have disproportionate regional impacts on particular tipping systems. For example, black carbon deposition is particularly effective at melting snow and ice. […]

The Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 provides the foundation for current global climate mitigation efforts. Three components of the agreement are central for mitigation efforts and should be re-evaluated in light of the growing knowledge of tipping points: global goals related to global temperature and corresponding discussions about suitable mitigation pathways, Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs), […]

The recognition of multiple drivers of tipping processes is important for thinking about prevention approaches. But given the important (direct or indirect) role of increasing atmospheric temperatures for almost all Earth system tipping processes, the central focus of tipping point prevention efforts has to be mitigation – the reduction of both long-lived and short-lived GHG […]

Most Earth system tipping processes have multiple drivers. Prevention of ESTPs requires tackling all of them. Given this multi-causality, the term prevention is related to, but not synonymous with, mitigation. The familiar concept of climate mitigation in the narrow sense of reducing GHG emissions can be applied to ESTPs; emission reductions serve to limit atmospheric […]

Given the significant risks posed by ESTPs (severe, even catastrophic, consequences for human wellbeing and ecological stability) the irreversibility of these impacts, their cascading potential, and with a view to precaution, prevention of all tipping processes should become the primary objective of governance in this domain. Given the severe threats that crossing ESTPs pose to […]

Key Messages Recommendations Summary Preventing the transgression of Earth system tipping points (ESTPs) (hereafter ‘prevention of tipping points’) should become the central objective of this domain of global governance. This chapter addresses the question of how governance actors, especially governments, could achieve this objective. ESTPs have multiple interacting drivers that operate at different scales. Effective […]

ESTPs present a distinct set of challenges that should be addressed with policy and governance measures. The time is now for state and non-state governance actors across multiple scales to engage with this topic and elevate it on the international political agenda. Actors need to understand how tipping points affect their interests to develop agency, […]

Public risk perceptions shape the politics of climate change (Sjöberg, 2001) and will be important for the policy trajectory of ESTPs. Public risk perceptions can both enable and constrain public policymaking and are a good indicator (Sjöberg, 2001) for the public’s willingness to engage in behaviour change. In recent years, international polls have found growing […]

Several political dynamics will accompany the development of governance institutions related to climate tipping points. While many of these are unpredictable, the following are likely to emerge, especially in the early phase of agenda setting and governance venue identification. Governance of ESTPs is currently in the agenda-setting phase, where the provision of knowledge needs to […]

Beyond the UNFCCC and IPCC (see Chapter 3.4), a number of other international and transnational fora may be relevant to consider for the governance of ESTPs. The UN Secretary General could establish a governance forum to make recommendations to be taken up by the UN General Assembly. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) is an issue-specific […]

While this report covers ESTPs beyond the climate system, climate-related tipping points present the majority of the tipping systems addressed. This raises important questions regarding the relevance and ability of the international climate change regime to govern climate tipping points. The global climate governance landscape is polycentric, with a wide variety of actors from international […]

When considering what institutions of governance would be the most appropriate to address the risks posed by ESTPs, three non-mutually exclusive logics can be employed. First, ESTPs are arguably of global concern that requires global-scale governance, especially with a view to the possibility of tipping point cascades. While some tipping systems have a more regional […]

At this early stage of governance efforts related to ESTPs, there is not yet an established set of governance actors and institutions with explicit mandates or roles. Given that many ESTPs are a consequence of climate change, it might seem obvious to address this set of challenges in the existing governance institutions for climate change. […]

Many existing principles of international law and global environmental governance – shared beliefs of a fundamental nature that guide collective decision making and behaviour – are relevant for the governance of ESTPs. Below, we briefly discuss some of the principles we consider most important in the specific context of rapid state shifts in large Earth […]

Based on the significant risks posed by Earth system tipping processes – major self-sustaining reorganisations of natural systems with potentially significant, negative consequences for human wellbeing – there is a strong argument for prevention as the primary objective of governance in this domain. Climate tipping points present a variety of risks, but for many people, […]

Given this status quo of lacking specific governance responses to ESTPs (pre-governance), fundamental questions include what actors collectively want to achieve, and which principles should guide their collective decisions and actions. A central challenge in developing governance for tipping points is the scarcity of obvious procedural analogues or instructive case studies. However, governing ESTPs is […]

While attention to the threats posed by ESTPs is growing, explicit governance efforts to address them do not yet exist. Governance refers to rules, regulations, norms and institutions that structure and guide collective behaviour and actions. This includes the processes that create governance, which often involve politics, policymaking and mechanisms for holding actors accountable for […]

Key Messages Recommendations Summary Existing institutions of global sustainability governance do not address the specific risks and challenges posed by Earth system tipping points (ESTPs). State and non-state actors need to engage in agenda-setting for the development of a governance framework that can close this gap. This chapter seeks to inform emerging discussions, decisions and […]