4.2.3.4 Triggers of positive tipping

Any phenomenon that can be causally linked to a tipping point can be a trigger. This could be a deliberate social innovation, an investment or a policy intervention, strategically timed for maximum leverage or impact, and in awareness of the proximity of a tipping point thanks to early opportunity indicators (4.4.5). Alternatively, a trigger could be something incidental like a natural disaster or an epidemic, which causes a sudden shift in public attitudes and opens a window of opportunity for policy change. One example was the response of the German government to discontinue its nuclear power programme in the wake of the Fukushima tsunami disaster (Eder et al., 2023)

Mealy et al. (2023) argue that the most effective or ‘sensitive’ interventions should be executed when a system is close to tipping, the intervention thus acting as the decisive element or trigger. They propose a framework to help decision makers assess and prioritise interventions according to the assessment criteria, considerations and caveats presented in Table 4.2.2.

Table 4.2.2: A framework for prioritising ‘sensitive interventions’ close to a tipping point (Mealy et al., 2023).

PillarKey assessment elementsOther considerations and caveats
Trigger potentialCriticality: Does the intervention exploit a system that is close to a tipping point?Does the intervention target a critical node in a network?Is this a critical point in time?
Barriers: Are there barriers or resistance to the intervention, and can they be easily diffused?Who stands to lose out from the intervention?Are there any other possible stumbling blocks or binding constraints?
Lock-in and hysteresis: What prevents the change from being reversed?Will a change in political leadership reverse the change?Does the intervention create path-dependency?Are actors in the system incentivised to keep the change in place?
Impact potentialSize of impact: Likely size of impact relative to cost of effort.Size of impacts relative to costs can be difficult to quantify without a model that is able to capture nonlinear dynamics. However, rough estimates and expert opinion can also be useful (Lenton et al., 2008).
Scales of impact: Potential to generate compounding change at greater scales.Does the intervention lead to upward-scaling cascades across multiple system scales (e.g. sectors, geographies or social spheres?Does the intervention create synergies with other interventions, reinforcing the overall effect of change?
Speed of impact: Timescale in which the intervention can be triggered and impacts realised.Are the desired impacts likely to be realised at a time-scale relevant to address the problem (e.g. addressing climate change requires significant emissions reductions in the next few decades)
Risk potentialUncertainty: What are the sources of uncertainty around the envisioned change process and associated impacts?Are there examples where similar interventions have been tried in the past?Are there inherent sources of uncertainty that could put the viability of the intervention at risk?
Unintended consequences: Could the intervention lead to impacts that are not intended or anticipated?The risk of unintended consequences can be higher in complex systems that are sensitive to small changes in initial conditions or involve complex dynamics that are not well understood. Engaging with diverse groups of stakeholders can help bring to light unapparent unintended consequences.
Trade-offs: Could the intervention or desired impacts cause adverse outcomes in other areas?Are there any possibilities where the intervention or its impacts may create tensions or adverse impacts in other areas? If so, are there ways in which these trade-offs can be mitigated?
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