3.1.5 Public communication and risk perceptions

Public risk perceptions shape the politics of climate change (Sjöberg, 2001) and will be important for the policy trajectory of ESTPs. Public risk perceptions can both enable and constrain public policymaking and are a good indicator (Sjöberg, 2001) for the public’s willingness to engage in behaviour change. In recent years, international polls have found growing concern about climate change and strong global support for urgent and decisive action (UNDP, 2021; Ipsos-MORI, 2023). A recent Ipsos Mori survey conducted for the Global Commons Alliance finds that three quarters of people in G20 nations believe that human activity has pushed the Earth close to tipping points (Gaffney and Tcholak-Antitch, 2021). At the same time, significant misperceptions and public knowledge gaps remain (Galaz et al., 2023). However, very limited research has been conducted on public understanding and risk perceptions specifically related to climate (or Earth system) tipping points. 

Contrary to researchers’ expectations, work so far suggests that the concept of climate tipping points, especially the feature of non-linear change, does not generate increased concern when compared to climate change more generally (Formanski et al., 2022). Higher risk perceptions in response to information about tipping points tends to be limited to specific cultural groups with egalitarian values (Bellamy, 2023) and to people who are highly engaged in climate change policymaking (van Beek et al., 2022). However, these preliminary findings might be based on a broad lack of understanding of the issue and its implications rather than public indifference (Nadeau et al., ESD preprint). Given the learning challenges related to tipping points, non-linear change, and complex systems dynamics more generally, media coverage and public communication related to tipping points might face serious challenges.

While risk perceptions can drive action on tipping points, overwhelming fear of them may have the opposite effect and paralyse action (O’Neill and Nicholson-Cole, 2009). When communicating about tipping points, a careful balance needs to be struck between accurately characterising the risks and potential impacts, but also conveying potential solutions and agency. Further, the same message will be received very differently by different audiences, depending on, for example, their age, profession and ideology. Overwhelm and/or avoidance may lead to inaction or, even worse, to polarisation and the exacerbation of social and political divisions, which could hinder any progress in tackling those risks. In addition, an overemphasis on the potential impacts and the wrongful idea that ‘it’s too late’ may warrant the consideration of deployment of dangerous unproven solutions, which could have harmful and unforeseen consequences in the Earth system. Addressing these fears and overcoming their potential paralysing effects requires effective communication, education and engagement strategies. Emphasising the wide-ranging and tangible co-benefits of action to avoid tipping points, providing tangible solutions, and building a sense of empowerment, and shared responsibility can help alleviate fear and inspire meaningful action.