Section 4: Positive tipping points in technology, economy and society

D.1. Positive tipping points offer the prospect that coordinated, strategic interventions can lead to disproportionately large and rapid beneficial results that mitigate existential climate risk and help redirect humanity along more sustainable pathways.

D.1.1. We are now so close to Earth system tipping points that positive tipping points to accelerate social change are the only realistic systemic risk governance option. (Chapter 4.2)

D.1.2. Positive tipping points don’t just happen, they need to be actively enabled. Most positive tipping points require interventions – technological innovation, political and social action, behaviour/norm change, and financial investment – that create the enabling conditions and alter the balance of feedback for tipping to occur. (Chapter 4.2)

D.1.3. Changemakers could benefit from more diverse perspectives to open up the solution space, leveraging a shift in worldviews as well as reconfiguring systems, technologies, markets and materials. (Chapters 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.6)

Recommendation:

D.1.4. Science funders and knowledge institutions should urgently foster a comprehensive, systematic and transdisciplinary programme of research and development of positive tipping points concepts, theory, methods and applications.

D.2. Positive tipping points provide new opportunities and challenges for decision makers. (Chapter 4.2)

D.2.1. Human systems are complex. Decision makers need reliable information and frameworks to assess the effects, opportunities and risks of interventions. (Chapter 4.2)

D.2.2. An avoid-shift-improve logic can be used in many sectors to decide which form of intervention is most effective. (Chapter 4.3)

D.2.3. High-emitting sectors need coordinated supply-side and demand-side approaches. There are key feedbacks between them that can lead to positive tipping points. (Chapter 4.3)

D.2.4. Small-group coalitions of state and non-state actors (e.g. cities) may be more effective in accelerating ambitious climate leadership than larger groups. (Chapter 4.4)

D.2.5. Rapid systemic change usually creates losers as well as winners. The required scale and speed of change will only be possible with sufficient public consent. (Chapter 4.6)

D.2.6. The public must be involved in relevant decision making and equipped with a clear understanding of the enormous opportunities (lives saved, improved health/wellbeing, better jobs, clean and cheap energy) as well as the risks of rapid change. (Chapter 4.4.2)

Recommendations:

D.2.7. National and regional policymakers need a systems- thinking approach and coordinated strategies across all sectors, departments and levels of government. Both supply- side and demand-side interventions are needed to maximise the potential of positive tipping points. (Chapters 4.2 and 4.3)

D.2.8. Countries and relevant non-state actors should form small-group coalitions (climate clubs) of shared interests that can enable positive tipping points. For example, a global tipping point for electric vehicles could be brought forward if China, EU and US introduce future bans on the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles. (Chapter 4.4.2)

D.2.9. Governments, cooperating with relevant industries and trade unions, must ensure that those who might otherwise be losers from positive tipping points – e.g. livestock farmers, workers in fossil-fuel industries, or exploited workers mining rare-earth metals for the new economy – are given the support needed for a just transition. (Chapter 4.6)

D.3. Positive tipping points are starting to occur in energy systems and can be brought forward by demand-side interventions. (Chapter 4.3.1)

D.3.1. The power sector in many countries recently passed a tipping point of cost parity for renewable power generation. Declining prices of renewable electricity below cost parity with fossil-fuelled power generation further reinforce exponential growth. Over 80% of new electricity generation in 2022 was solar and wind. (Chapter 4.3.1)

D 3.2. Affordable renewable electricity supply is driving tipping points across systems and technologies such as EVs and heat pumps. (Chapter 4.3.1)

D.3.3. Reducing energy demand by avoiding energy-intensive activities, shifting to less energy-intensive activities and improving energy service efficiency can accelerate decarbonising the energy system. (Chapter 4.3.1)

Recommendations:

D.3.4. Investors, policymakers and technology providers need to focus on clean energy technology development, the achievement of cost parity with ‘sunset’ technologies, and exponential diffusion worldwide, especially in emerging markets. (Chapter 4.3.1)

D.3.5. Policymakers need to introduce strong regulations, such as minimum efficiency levels for buildings and appliances, that incentivise demand reductions through the adoption of low-carbon technologies and behaviours. (Chapters 4.3.1, 4.3.2)

D.3.6. Policy to support both supply-side and demand-side reductions should be designed to support sustainable and durable changes. (Chapter 4.3.1)

D.4. Positive tipping points are starting to occur in electric vehicle markets which need to be complemented by systemic changes in transport and mobility systems. (Chapter 4.3.2)

D.4.1. Electric vehicles show evidence of passing or approaching tipping points in major markets including China and Europe. (Chapter 4.3.2)

D.4.2. There is an urgent need for tipping points in transport demand as freight and personal transport continue to increase with diverse negative impacts. (Chapter 4.3.2)

D.4.3. There are encouraging localised examples of tipping points in urban mobility, with a decrease in individual motorised transport and a shift to more active transport modes which can be upscaled. (Chapter 4.3.2)

Recommendations:

D.4.4. Policymakers need to prioritise integrated planning to enable tipping in transport, foremost regional planning for public transport and active travel infrastructure to avoid material-intensive individual mobility. (Chapter 4.3.2)

D.4.5. Policymakers need to steer the transition of the transport sector with tools such as zero emission vehicle mandates, which can induce EV tipping points across markets.

D.5. Positive tipping points have yet to occur at scale in food systems, but there are a range of interventions that can create enabling conditions. (Chapter 4.3.3)

D.5.1. Shifting to more plant-based diets, avoiding food loss and waste, and improving farming practice have synergistic benefits for meeting the Paris targets, biodiversity protection goals and Sustainable Development Goals. (Chapter 4.3.3)

D.5.2. Potential positive tipping points can be enabled in the uptake of alternatives to livestock products, spread of sustainable agriculture, and green ammonia production for fertiliser. (Chapter 4.3.3)

Recommendations:

D.5.3. Policymakers should focus on designing and sequencing policies strategically to incentivise production shifts away from livestock. Adaptive and deliberative governance can help ensure positive outcomes for potential ‘losers’ (e.g. livestock farmers). (Chapter 4.3.3)

D.5.4. Policymakers should enable diversified income opportunities for farmers, to make agroecological or sustainable landuse practices economically attractive (e.g. through carbon markets, agri-photovoltaics). (Chapter 4.3.3)

D.5.5. New emission-pricing (e.g. for methane and nitrogen), especially focused on large producers, could generate revenues to support most affected regions and low-income groups, foster innovation (e.g. via reducing VAT rates on plant-based food), and create additional income sources for farmers. (Chapter 4.3.3)

D.5.6. Policymakers, retailers and public cafeterias should use nudging and public procurement of more plant-based and sustainable food to accelerate the adoption of new sustainable, healthy diets. (Chapter 4.3.3)

D.5.7. Policymakers, investors, NGOs and food retailers should support innovation, health and sustainability transparency criteria, accessibility, and certification to facilitate market penetration of sustainable and healthy alternative proteins. (Chapter 4.3.3)

D.6. Social behaviour and politics can enable positive tipping in other key systems and can themselves be viewed as systems with tipping points. (Chapter 4.4)

D.6.1. Changes in social-behavioural systems often precede and fuel wider changes and can exhibit tipping dynamics through social contagion processes. (Chapter 4.4)

D.6.2. Elements of civil society, including social movements, tend to be at the vanguard of radical social change. However, to successfully disrupt and replace an incumbent regime, they also need to cultivate a broad coalition of public, business and political support. (Chapter 4.4)

D.6.3. ‘Free social spaces’ are places where social movements and other alternative communities of practice can gestate, experiment and build their networks, partly protected from more powerful mainstream influences. (Chapters 4.2, 4.4.1)

D.6.4. New social norms that could help transform society include anti-fossil fuel norms and sufficiency norms. However, replacing deeply entrenched norms around consumerism in favour of sustainable sufficiency would be challenging. (Chapter 4.4.1)

Recommendations:

D.6.5. Governments should pursue policies such as fossil-fuel phase-out and post-carbon infrastructure investment in ways that make the desired behaviours the most affordable and convenient options. (Chapter 4.4.1)

D.6.6. Policymakers should design policies to create increasing returns for shifts towards sustainable behaviours, compensate for losses, and ensure the autonomy and capacity of key actors. (Chapter 4.4.2)

D.7. The financial system can play a key role in enabling positive tipping points if it is appropriately regulated. (Chapter 4.4.3)

D.7.1. Policy interventions can enable transformative shifts within and beyond the financial sector, capitalising on nonlinear dynamics. (Chapter 4.4.3)

D.7.2. Public finance can mitigate market uncertainty and encourage private investment, helping to trigger positive tipping points (e.g. in offshore wind). Premature withdrawal of public finance (e.g. subsidies) can delay or jeopardise positive tipping points. (Chapter 4.4.3)

D.7.3. Promoting alignment of investors’ expectations regarding the timing and pace of the transition can help to scale sustainable investment. (Chapter 4.4.3)

D.7.4. Policy mixes that combine command-and-control and market-based instruments can initiate virtuous cycles, driving technological development and reducing the overall need for public investment. (Chapter 4.4.3)

Recommendations:

D.7.5. Governments and development finance institutions need to provide support to overcome climate investment traps in developing countries by reducing capital costs and establishing an investment track record. (Chapter 4.4.3)

D.7.6. Governments and financial regulators should provide prudential regulation and financial supervision tools to facilitate a managed decline in fossil fuel lending, together with coordinated transition plans to enhance their collective impact on debt markets (e.g. through the Net Zero Banking Alliance). (Chapter 4.4.3)

D.8. Digital technologies can be key enablers of positive tipping across sectors if appropriately governed and supported. (Chapter 4.4.4)

D.8.1. Digital technologies are already enabling positive tipping points in renewable electricity and light road transport and will likely do so in other sectors. (Chapter 4.4.4)

D.8.2. The potential of digitalisation as an enabler of positive tipping points can be best realised in a public policy framework that prohibits or limits environmental degradation while promoting the purposeful use of digital technologies towards climate mitigation and sustainable development. (Chapter 4.4.4)

Recommendations:

D.8.3. Governments need to implement regulations to ensure the benefits of digitalisation are universal and not limited to specific groups. (Chapter 4.4.4)

D.8.4. Public sector actors need to invest in capacity building and the granting of access to appropriate digital hardware, software and infrastructure. (Chapter 4.4.4)

D.9. ‘Early opportunity indicators’ of positive tipping points could be used to maximise the leveraging effect of targeted interentions. (Chapter 4.4.5)

D.9.1. ‘Early opportunity indicators’ of approaching tipping points in electric vehicle markets have been detected in country-level data. (Chapter 4.4.5)

D.9.2. These generic indicators could provide early indication of opportunities for interventions to accelerate positive tipping points in other sectors and could be used to assess the impact of previous interventions. (Chapter 4.4.5)

Recommendation:

D.9.3. Research funders and investors should support efforts to develop early opportunity indicators of positive tipping points in other systems, including indicators that capture more than one domain of systemic change (e.g. market data and public attitudes).(Chapter 4.4.5)

D.10. ‘Super-leverage points’ can be identified with the potential to trigger positive tipping cascades. (Chapter 4.5)

D.10.1. Cascading effects involve multiple systems, for example when one sector drives down the cost of a shared technology or when the output from one sector provides a low-cost input to another.

D.10.2. Cascading effects can also occur within and between social, political and financial systems, potentially leading to rapid changes in social norms, values and policies. (Chapter 4.5)

Recommendation:

D.10.3. Government, business, finance and research sectors need to develop a coordinated, international, systems-thinking approach to super-leverage points and tipping cascades. For example, mandates for green ammonia for fertiliser manufacturing could trigger a tipping point in demand for hydrogen electrolysers, reducing the cost of green hydrogen and increasing the viability of green hydrogen-based solutions in other sectors, including steel and shipping. (Chapter 4.5)

D.11. The prevention of Earth system tipping points and the promotion of positive tipping points must ensure just and equitable outcomes. (Chapter 4.6)

D.11.1. Considerations of what needs to change, who is being asked to change, where the change and its impacts will be felt, and by whom, require reflexivity, inclusiveness and cooperation between all actors in all branches of society. (Chapter 4.6)

D.11.2. Supportive and inclusive financial investment is needed for equitable interventions. (Chapter 4.6)

Recommendations:

D.11.3. All sectors of society should increase pressure on governments to provide the resources and regulations needed for a just and equitable transition to a sustainable future. Consistency is key: conflicting standards and policy backtracking delay progress and investment. (Chapter 4.6)

D.11.4. All commentators, particularly media organisations, need to be aware of the politics of language and power dynamics in framing their content and key messages. (Chapter 4.6)

D.11.5. Researchers and practitioners need to engage with diversity and employ inclusive approaches from the earliest stages of project design. (Chapter 4.6)

D.11.6. Public engagement and education on the opportunities, risks and ethical complexities of a just transition must be at the heart of an international climate action plan. (Chapter 4.6)