2.4.4.5 Shrinkage of Lake Chad

Lake Chad is a large, shallow lake located in the Sahelian zone of west-central Africa. It is bordered by Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon. The lake is fed mainly by the Chari and Logone rivers, and its surface area varies depending on the rainfall in the region. The West African monsoon is the main driver of precipitation in the area, and current models cannot reliably predict future rainfall. It is one of the largest lakes in Africa, covering an area of approximately 1,350 sq km at its maximum during the rainy season and shrinking to as small as 10 per cent of this during the dry season. Known for its ecological diversity, the lake supports a variety of plant and animal species, including more than 300 species of bird (Magrin and De Montclos, 2018; Nagarajan et al., 2018). 

Lake Chad is an important resource for the people living in the surrounding area, providing fishing as well as transportation and water for irrigation. However, in recent decades, the lake has been shrinking due to a combination of climate change, overuse of water resources and population growth in the region. This has led to environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity and displacement of people who depend on the lake for their livelihoods (Franzke et al., 2022). The reduction in water resources has also led to increased competition for resources among communities and countries sharing the lake, leading to tensions and even violent conflict. This competition can be exacerbated by ethnic and religious differences, historical grievances and political tensions (Magrin and De Montclos, 2018).

This example highlights how climate change can exacerbate existing economic, environmental, political and social pressures, creating a self-reinforcing loop between livelihood insecurity, climate change vulnerability, conflict and fragility (Franzke et al., 2022). Conflicts over natural resources may worsen due to climate change, affecting different occupational groups and reducing their opportunities to meet their livelihood needs. Climate change can change the availability and access to natural resources, creating new winners and losers. The impact of climate change on Lake Chad’s water balance and precipitation is uncertain. The conflict has negatively impacted the population’s ability to adapt to climate change, restricting access to natural resources, displacing people and damaging social cohesion. The self-reinforcing feedback loop between increasing livelihood insecurity, climate change vulnerability, conflict and fragility can perpetuate the current crisis and take the region further down the path of conflict and fragility, creating cascading risks that can spread to other regions (Nagarajan et al., 2018).

In the context of Lake Chad, a further tipping point could occur if the lake shrinks or rainfall variability increases to a point where it can no longer sustain ecosystem services for the surrounding communities, leading to a rapid and significant deterioration of the region’s environmental, economic and social conditions (Vivekananda et al., 2019; Nagarajan et al., 2018).

Another tipping cascade is the potential collapse of the lake’s fisheries, which are a vital source of food and livelihoods for the surrounding communities. If the lake continues to shrink, the fish populations may decline to a point where they can no longer sustain commercial fishing, leading to a loss of income and food security for the local population (See CLD, Figure 2.4.10).

Another possible cascade is increased desertification and land degradation as the lake shrinks, which could further exacerbate environmental degradation and contribute to the displacement of people and loss of livelihoods. The environmental degradation caused by the loss of water resources and the encroachment of the desert can also lead to further soil erosion, loss of biodiversity, and reduced carbon sequestration. These factors can contribute to climate change, exacerbating the problem of water scarcity and creating a vicious cycle of environmental degradation (see CLD, Figure 2.4.10) (Franzke et al., 2022).

Potential tipping points in the social-ecological context can also occur due to increased conflict over resources as water becomes scarcer (Figure 2.4.9). If tensions between different communities and states in the region escalate to the point of violence, it could lead to further displacement of people, increased economic hardship and a more significant loss of life and property (see also Box on Lake Chad in 2.3.5. Violent Conflict).

Related to this, a tipping cascade can emerge as a result of loss of trust in the ability of state and local governments to provide security and basic services for their citizens. If the violence and conflict in the region continue to escalate, it could lead to a breakdown of the social contract between the state and its citizens, further fuelling tensions and distrust. This can be exacerbated further by the spread of extremist ideologies and the entrenchment of Boko Haram and other extremist groups in the region. If these groups continue to gain support and expand their control over the region, it could lead to a significant deterioration of the security situation, making it even more challenging to address the underlying drivers of conflict (Magrin and De Montclos, 2018).

Addressing the complex challenges facing the Lake Chad region will require a comprehensive and coordinated approach that takes into account the systemic nature of the issues (Sillmann et al., 2022). Efforts are being made to address the problem of the shrinking lake, including the development of irrigation schemes, the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices and the conservation of wetlands and other important ecosystems. International organisations such as the Lake Chad Basin Commission and the United Nations are also involved in efforts to address the environmental and humanitarian challenges facing the region (Nagarajan et al., 2018). Some potential solutions include sustainable water management, environmental conservation, conflict prevention and resolution, economic development and regional cooperation (Sayan et al., 2020). In cases such as this, there is a continued need to build consensus around the reasons for the emerging conflict, and support long-term policies with regional water governance plans (Nagabhatla et al., 2021).