Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Positive tipping dynamics have been, or can potentially be, observed in various sociotechnical and environmental systems. Due to (sometimes) strong interconnections between these systems, a positive tipping intervention can lead to a sequence of secondary impacts across different systems (energy, finance, policy, etc) and scales (individual, national, international) and result in a much larger eventual impact. These cross-system interactions also create cascading feedback mechanisms that can further reinforce the positive feedbacks within those systems and accelerate the tipping dynamics, or vice versa. Therefore, identifying and managing such cascades is necessary to accelerate tipping dynamics and boost the effectiveness of positive tipping interventions towards rapid decarbonisation.
The Industrial Revolution in Britain (ca. 1760-1840) provides archetypal examples of cascading effects across the economy. High wages spurred innovation in the substitution of energy for labour; and innovation in cotton manufacturing triggered much wider applications of machines and the new modes of production. Increasing energy demand spurred innovation in resource extraction, in the energy-efficiency of steam engines, and in a transport network to move heavy materials (e.g. coal, iron). That transport network in turn expanded markets for both heavy and pre-existing lighter (organic) goods. Increasing demand for such goods from a growing middle class drove further investment in innovation, increasing productivity and maintaining economic growth.
This chapter describes key examples of cascading effects and feedback loops across various sociotechnical (e.g. energy, transport), social-ecological (e.g. agriculture) and socio-political systems. Besides a better understanding of the state and potential of positive tipping, this chapter sheds light on how such tipping dynamics can be triggered by civil society and the private sector, creating the constituency for government-led interventions, and can be managed by limiting negative cascades and inducing positive ones.