Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Section lead coordinating authors: Jesse F. Abrams, Steven J. Lade, Jonathan F. Donges, Joshua E. Buxton
Reviewers: Luke Kemp, Richard Mann, Michael Mäs, Coleen Vogel
Earth system destabilisation and tipping points can have far-reaching and catastrophic consequences across various critical sectors. Assessments of climate change often overlook the consequences of climate tipping points, with national evaluations lacking in-depth quantitative analysis and relying on expert opinions. These tipping points, including permafrost thaw and forest dieback, can lead to localised effects through land surface changes and regional climate alterations, as well as global impacts through shifts in atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Such changes carry the potential for severe impacts on people and ecosystems, including major impacts on water, food, energy security, health, communities and economies.
Climate change, especially if compounded by Earth system destabilisation, has the potential to set off negative social tipping points that would lead to catastrophic impacts for human societies. Such tipping points could encompass a breakdown in social cohesion known as anomie, manifesting as a loss of shared values and norms. This, in turn, could foster radicalisation and polarisation, driving societies ideologically further apart. Destabilisation caused by environmental shifts could lead to societies tipping into anomie, radicalisation, widespread displacement of populations, conflict over limited resources, and economic instability.
Negative social tipping points could reinforce each other in domino-like cascades, creating systemic risk, amplifying impacts and potentially accelerating climate change. These social tipping points and cascades mean the future will not adhere to ‘business as usual’; rather, it will be defined by either constructive mitigation and adaptation to climate change or negative social change impeding the realisation of sustainable futures.
Confidence in many impacts is presently low, due to the lack of systematic assessments and the difficulty of forecasting social change. Investments are urgently needed to better understand potential impacts and negative social tipping, anticipate them through early warning systems, and develop actions to mitigate them.