2.4 Cascades of tipping in impacts

Sirkku Juhola, Juan Rocha, Jana Sillmann, Ashleigh Basel, Sara M. Constantino, Alessandro C.W. Craparo, Graeme S. Cumming, Jonathan F. Donges, Tatiana Filatova, Alexandra Malmström, Vidur Mithal, Jürgen Scheffran, Heidi Tuhkanen, Tabitha Watson

Key Messages

  • Although empirical evidence is currently scarce, extrapolating known feedbacks in complex human-natural systems suggests that tipping points in social and natural systems could plausibly form tipping cascades, with catastrophic risks for human wellbeing.
  • Less is known about cascades from biophysical to socio-economic systems than those between biophysical systems. This is due to limited experience, and time lags between crossing Earth system tipping points and the reaction of social systems.
  • Research on tipping cascades in human systems thus far has focused on accelerating mitigation action, rather than preparing for potential consequences of physical climate risks.

Recommendations

  • Transdisciplinary research initiatives are required to help build understanding and consensus around tipping cascades and their role in the emergence of systemic risk.
  • Focused research is needed on the mechanisms and consequences of tipping interactions, including identifying distinct feedbacks fuelled by policy, economic, financial and behavioural dynamics that can potentially lead to cascades. 
  • Monitoring programmes should be created to systematically gather data about potential tipping point interactions over long periods of time, founded on research into which variables to monitor.

Summary

This chapter advances the state-of-the-art understanding of tipping cascades across scales and systems between Earth system and social tipping points. We consider a tipping cascade to occur when extremes or passing of a tipping point in one system triggers or increases the likelihood of reaching a tipping point in another. Here, this means that crossing an Earth system tipping point or experiencing an extreme volatility in the natural system can lead to cascading impacts that trigger social tipping points, and vice versa. 

Our analysis of the literature shows that most is known about the tipping cascades in the large-scale Earth System, while hardly any research analyses tipping cascades within socio-economic systems. We further illustrate the complexity of identifying tipping cascades with five case studies. These examples show the challenges in establishing the state of systems involved, identifying and modelling dynamics over time and space, as well as capturing the context dependency of interactions, especially in the social system. 

Further research steps include development of conceptual understanding of causal chains and feedbacks, as well as systematic accumulation of the empirical evidence base over temporal and across spatial scales. Research on governance of tipping cascades is in its infancy, with little insight into how the risks of tipping cascades can be identified and managed. 

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