Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Over the last decade, remote sensing data has gained greater prominence in assessing the possibility of climate and ecological tipping points (Dakos et al., 2023). This is linked to the increasing amount of open access data and the computational capacity to analyse it. Some datasets have been available since ~1972, thus giving us approximately 50 years of time series data to analyse. This provides users a long enough record from which to get statistically significant EWS (bearing in mind issues around merging data from new sensors; 1.6.1.6), and as such should be utilised as much as possible.
The use of remote sensed products can contribute in two different, and complementary, ways to detect EWS: direct and derived measurements. The use of direct observables, or low-level products, requires an advanced knowledge of the acquisition system to control and account for parameters that may affect the extraction of EWS in terms of the data’s Signal-to-Noise ratio. Additionally, one could consider the use of derived measurements, or high-level products, which correspond to physical variables calculated from the aforementioned low-level products, such as NDVI (‘normalised difference vegetation index’) as a measure of vegetation greenness. These datasets can be more usable, but their second-order nature can present a source of uncertainty that may hinder the extraction of EWS. Nevertheless, both low- and high-level remote sensed data and products are considered in the extraction of domain-specific variables, such as climate, (Bojinski et al., 2014), ocean (Miloslavich et al., 2018) and biodiversity variables (Pereira et al., 2013).
The benefits of these growing and openly available remote sensing datasets are clear: new sensors are able to provide data with improved spatial resolutions (in the order of metres for optical and radar sensors) across very large areas, thus making possible improved analysis of both temporal and spatial EWS.