Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
ESTPs present a distinct set of challenges that should be addressed with policy and governance measures. The time is now for state and non-state governance actors across multiple scales to engage with this topic and elevate it on the international political agenda. Actors need to understand how tipping points affect their interests to develop agency, form coalitions, and actively engage in the agenda-setting process. A range of existing principles of global governance and international law should shape discussions and decisions, including the need for anticipatory approaches, precaution in the face of uncertainty, and the need for intergenerational, intra-generational and international justice.
Given the nature and scope of ESTPs, governance efforts must be coordinated across multiple spatial and temporal scales, managing cross-scale dynamics and potential tipping cascades in coupled human-Earth systems. It is useful to distinguish three phases of tipping processes (pre-tipping, re-organisation and stabilisation), and to shift the focus of governance efforts corresponding to these phases. There is significant scope for incorporating governance of ESTPs into existing institutions, especially the UNFCCC, but novel actors, approaches and institutions will likely be needed to cover the full range of emerging challenges, especially at the scale of tipping systems.