4.3.2.5 Positive tipping points in other transport systems

This chapter has focused on individual transport and tipping in urban contexts. Inter-city or long-distance passenger or freight transport and related indications of tipping opportunities have been discussed elsewhere previously (Meldrum et al., 2023). 

A tipping point for electrification of heavy-duty road transport (i.e. freight), responsible for three per cent of global emissions, is a more distant prospect than that for EVs as it depends on considerable development in battery technology and charging infrastructure deployment to become competitive on cost. Once price parity is reached, however, tipping is very likely due to the strong economic incentives for business to reduce distribution costs. Strong policy to support development of charging infrastructure is likely to accelerate tipping. Other systemic changes can also play a powerful role in avoiding freight emissions by increasing efficiency, which would further reduce the costs of electrification (e.g. Box 4.3.5).

In aviation, tipping to using synthetic, power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels is a possibility, dependent on significantly reducing the costs of production to be competitive with fossil fuels. This requires considerable investment in development as PtL fuels are currently nearly four times the price of kerosene jet fuel. Reaching a tipping point likely depends on a mixture of regulation with carbon pricing and/or subsidy; policy support is currently emerging in the US and EU, and may help to drive cost reductions and scaling. Opportunities for tipping cascades related to green ammonia and fertilisers exist for the shipping sector (Meldrum et al., 2023) (4.3.3. and Chapter 4.5).

Box
4.3.5

Asset sharing and digital platforms to tip freight transport

Asset sharing is a resource-sharing concept in road freight that facilitates available volume or weight capacity in trucks to other companies by a common data platform that contains routing plans and can match requests and available supply, aiming to optimise load factors. Digital information and communications technologies (ICTs) and the creation of common data platforms facilitated this concept (4.4.5) and several pilot case studies have shown the huge potential for companies, especially if distributing goods with no special transport requirements (e.g. temperature control) (Ballot and Fontane, 2010).

From an environmental point of view, sharing assets can increase logistic efficiencies – for instance, by increasing the occupancy rate of vehicles. Shifts towards less carbon-intensive modes are also possible, where bundling several companies’ freight creates a viable traffic flow. Ultimately, improvements that lead to load consolidation can reduce the number of trips required to deliver products and reduce the emissions linked to logistics activities. Reductions in emissions can be very significant, as shown in trial studies in the UK, with up to 40 per cent savings (Wang et al., 2015). Other studies, such as the EU-funded CO3 project – Collaboration Concepts for Co-modality – found savings from horizontal collaboration to be above 15 per cent. A partial collaboration project modelled the impacts of multilateral co-operation on CO2 emissions to be around 14 per cent. In Belgium, a collaboration between three firms could lead to a 25 per cent reduction of the number of delivery trips (Vanovermeire et al., 2014). Countries in the Global South have also already promoted some trials in urban contexts, such as Bogota, where a collaborative network of shared delivery routes and depot infrastructure was identified as having a 25 per cent CO2-saving potential. Other urban consolidation studies showed a huge potential for shared assets in cost savings (approximately 50 per cent) as well as CO2 emissions (40 per cent) (Nataraj et al., 2019). 

Most of the trials and initial platforms so far have been from private initiatives, but governments may consider appropriate competition regulations to facilitate such asset sharing towards a Physical Internet (PI). This concept is an open, shared global logistics system based on a physical application of the principles of the digital internet. Individual logistics networks would no longer be operated by one transport service provider, but rather by one global transport network using shared hubs. Competition among companies would focus on products rather than logistics and supply-chain extent and efficiency. Such a system would require new standardised modular packaging units, standard protocols and tools, and shared logistics and digital assets. The change in logistics systems is still nascent and trials are emerging. Regulatory frameworks are needed for a full-scale implementation globally and locally, providing incentives or penalties for inefficient or uncooperative behaviours that lead to additional use of resources. PI could disrupt the entire existing logistics chain, providing a positive tipping opportunity.

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