4.3.2.1 Introduction

The transport sector faces enormous challenges in meeting the decarbonisation targets in the following decades. Transportation worldwide is responsible for 23 per cent of global GHG emissions (ITF, 2023), still relying heavily on fossil fuels (91 per cent) (IEA, 2023). Its emissions are growing and it is the slowest sector to transform and adapt to a new reality (Creutzig et al., 2015), with infrastructure and vehicle fleets supporting lock-ins and path dependency. Freight (46 per cent of transport emissions) and passenger transport (54 per cent) are closely linked with the global economy and perceived wellbeing. This raises the question of how perceived wellbeing can be decoupled from unsustainable modes of mobility. 

Interventions or policies in the transport sector that could allow moving towards decarbonisation and provide a smoother and more robust pathway rely on the avoid-shift-improve framework (Creutzig et al,. 2022). Figure 4.3.3 presents the current system of policies and investment that needs to be inverted to increase the attractiveness of sustainable transport and public transport against car dependency, urban sprawl and long-distance travel. For transport systems, avoid focuses on measures that could help reduce demand for mobility by adapting consumption and activity patterns. Shift looks at the possibility of moving demand from carbon-intensive modes to cleaner zero-emission alternatives (e.g. public transport, biking, battery electric vehicles). And improve aims at increasing efficiency by meeting the same demand, yet reducing emissions through improving vehicle performance or promoting cleaner energy sources. Most recent measures and policies put in place or which have been promoted strongly for the next decades focus on the latter. 

Improving the efficiency of vehicles, such as switching from internal combustion engines to EVs (4.3.2.2), which have significantly lower lifetime emissions (Knobloch et al., 2020) (see Chapter 4.6), will contribute to achieve the decarbonisation targets and interfere less with how markets and society operates as underlying structures only have to adjust a little, but it will not be enough and also omits other externalities (e.g. traffic, material requirements). The challenge resides in the recent technological improvements that enhanced vehicle efficiency, reduced costs and generated more induced demand for mobility and transport than the CO₂ they mitigated.

Energy demand for passenger transport can be lowered by up to 73 per cent when combining avoid and shift approaches, achieving several co-benefits and improving wellbeing simultaneously (Arz and Krumm, 2023). Combined with improve options for the remaining part, urgently needed decarbonisation could be achieved in time.

For this reason, this chapter will also discuss enabling conditions to tip the transport system and transport-related policy measures and innovations that could significantly bring down transport emissions and promote other sustainability concerns, such as liveability and resource-use efficiency, in the coming decades. 

First, this chapter looks at passenger transport, summarising current understanding of the EV transition and then focusing on avoid and shift solutions in urban areas. Next, the chapter provides examples of technological advances that could transform freight transport. The examples are scalable and come with several opportunities for reinforcing feedbacks.