Manjana Milkoreit, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sara M. Constantino, Gideon Futerman, Timothy M. Lenton, Sean Low, Duncan P. McLaren, Marcia Rocha, Viktoria Spaiser, Claudia E. Wieners, Yulia Yamineva
Preventing the transgression of Earth system tipping points (ESTPs) (hereafter ‘prevention of tipping points’) should become the central objective of this domain of global governance. This chapter addresses the question of how governance actors, especially governments, could achieve this objective.
ESTPs have multiple interacting drivers that operate at different scales. Effective prevention strategies need to address all drivers with coordinated cross-scale approaches (polycentric prevention). Many institutions, from the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) to the Arctic Council, can assume prevention responsibilities and will need to be involved in governance. Global temperature increase is the most common driver of tipping processes, making climate mitigation the most effective prevention strategy across the diverse set of ESTPs identified to date. Hence, we see important opportunities for UNFCCC to provide a context for preventive governance measures. Beyond strengthening mitigation efforts for long-lived GHG, we discuss the need to manage short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), and advance carbon dioxide removal (CDR). We also assess the potential contribution of novel kinds of climate intervention (geo-engineering), concluding that, for the time being, these are not available options to support prevention.
Non-climate drivers are diverse and specific to each (type of) tipping element – for example, deforestation as a driver of forest dieback, or pollution contributing to coral reef die-off. Given this diversity, each tipping system requires a tailored prevention approach, likely involving different constellations of regional and national actors and institutions, cooperating and coordinating their efforts across scales.
Many governments and other actors have not yet sufficiently engaged with the challenges presented by tipping points and still need to define national and organisational interests in this domain. Prevention efforts related to ESTPs are likely to be subject to political dynamics and contestations that mirror current global climate change politics, especially diverging interests regarding the speed, scale and responsibilities for GHG emission reductions.