4.3.1 Energy systems

Floor Alkemade, Bart de Bruin, Francesco Pasimeni, Leila Niamir, Robert Wade, Franziska Mey, Johan Lilliestam, Raphaela Maier

Floor Alkemade, Bart de Bruin, Francesco Pasimeni, Leila Niamir, Robert Wade, Franziska Mey, Johan Lilliestam, Raphaela Maier

Key messages

  • For many countries the power sector has recently passed a tipping point in which the declining price of renewable electricity supply is reinforcing exponential growth, with over 80 per cent of new electricity generation in 2022 being solar and wind.
  • Fast growth and declining price in renewable electricity supply is driving social tipping in the electricity system, as shown in the uptake of EVs, PV or heat pump systems and interactions between them.
  • Reducing energy demand by identifying options to avoid energy-intensive activities, shifting to less energy-intensive activities and improving energy service efficiency can accelerate decarbonisation of the energy system.

Recommendations

  • Further foster clean energy technology development and diffusion worldwide, especially in emerging markets.
  • Enable positive tipping points in the adoption of novel technologies (shift and improve) and behaviours (avoid) with strong regulations that incentivise demand reductions.
  • Set minimum efficiency levels for buildings and appliances. 
  • Encourage much-needed research on evidence of spillovers from one to more environmentally friendly behaviours and how to enable such spillovers.
  • Implement strong additional policy support for behavioural feedback loops to ‘make them stick’.

Summary

The tipping dynamics in wind and solar power create potential for cascading effects to energy demand sectors, including household energy demand. These most likely start with shiftactions and adoption of household-scale batteries and heat pumps. Key enablers are strong regulations incentivising reductions in demand and setting minimum efficiency levels for buildings and appliances. While there is evidence of spillovers to more environmentally friendly behaviour, the extent of these and the key leverage points present a knowledge gap. Moreover, these behavioural feedback loops require strong additional policy support to ‘make them stick’. 

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