Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
At this early stage of governance efforts related to ESTPs, there is not yet an established set of governance actors and institutions with explicit mandates or roles.
Given that many ESTPs are a consequence of climate change, it might seem obvious to address this set of challenges in the existing governance institutions for climate change. In line with this rationale, most of the scholarship on climate tipping points so far treats them as a single, global-scale issue that should be added to the agenda of the UNFCCC. However, a more nuanced perspective is needed that accounts for the complex existing climate change governance institutions at multiple scales, (the diversity of ESTPs with different drivers and impacts at multiple scales, and the corresponding need for a multi-scale, polycentric governance approach. The international regime for the governance of climate change is not the only one with a mandate that is relevant for ESTPs; other multilateral institutions could play an important role, including the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the Arctic Council, the Antarctic Treaty, the recent High Seas Treaty, and the UN Environment Programme. More generally, different kinds of multilateral and international institutions can be distinguished:
Each kind has different characteristics and corresponding strengths. For example, treaty-based organisations have relatively rigid mandates formulated in an international treaty, while political cooperation platforms have more flexibility in adjusting their scope and agendas.
Here, we focus on the climate change regime before briefly discussing other institutional settings where tipping points could be addressed. This discussion seeks to open a debate about the need for novel governance institutions (and actors) that operate at the scale of a specific tipping element.