4.2.1.3 Not all systems have tipping points

PTP researchers and practitioners need to acknowledge that this is a very recent field of study that has yet to devise a formal, empirical way of distinguishing a system that is possible or likely to tip from one that isn’t. Incorrectly asserting a PTP could lead to false optimism and damage the credibility of the PTP approach. It could also lead to wasted effort, resources and time trying to induce PTPs in a real-world system that is either incapable or highly unlikely to tip within a useful timeframe. 

Sectors that have very high capital costs and very low replacement rates, sectors in which there are no obvious, strong, reinforcing feedbacks to drive change, or sectors in which there are strong dampening feedbacks to prevent change, may be poor candidates for PTP intervention. Hard-to-abate industries such as steel, chemicals and cement, and avoiding land use conversion (e.g. deforestation) are examples of sectors in which there is low confidence that PTPs may occur (Meldrum et al., 2023). We should expect powerful incumbents to strongly resist (i.e. dampening feedbacks) any intervention that attempts to destabilise existing systems/regimes (Kohler et al., 2019). It is therefore critical to identify and assess the relative strengths of reinforcing versus dampening feedback loops before asserting a potential tipping point. Assessing the relative strengths of feedbacks within and between multiple systems is also important for identifying potential tipping cascades, see (Chapter 4.5).