4.2.1.4 PTP dynamics

This complexity of human systems makes it difficult to generalise about the process or dynamics of PTPs. Each system or subsystem is a unique and constantly changing arrangement of elements operating in its own spatial, temporal, social, ecological, economic, technological, political, legal and other contexts (Weber et al., 2023). Opportunities for PTPs may differ by geographical region or jurisdiction. For example, the use of mobile money for payments, banking and insurance has increased exponentially – following the classic S-curve of adoption – in many countries of the Global South (e.g. M-PESA in Kenya, adopted by 96 per cent of households within nine years of its launch). This is due to its accessibility and suitability for users in developing economies with little capital but high cash turnover and access to mobile phones. Access to M-PESA increases economic activity, financial resilience, saving and entrepreneurship, and is estimated to have lifted two per cent of Kenyans out of poverty between 2007 and 2014 (Suri and Jack, 2016). However, it is unlikely to disrupt the established banking systems in developed economies, where the majority of people have access to traditional banking services.

Despite the many different kinds of systems and contexts, positive tipping dynamics do exhibit common features and principles across systems and domains, as illustrated in Figure 4.2.3. 

Mirroring the ‘ascent’ of sustainable innovations, PTPs also imply the ‘descent’ of incumbent, unsustainable systems (behaviours, practices, technologies and institutions). Whereas the tipping point for an innovative, sustainable solution marks the start of the accelerating, ‘take-off’ phase, it marks a ‘cliff moment’ of rapid descent for the incumbent system (Meldrum et al., 2023). Systems change might therefore be more accurately described as an ‘𝒙-curve’, rather than the more familiar ‘s-curve’ (Loorbach et al., 2017). The reverse, descending arm of the 𝒙-curve is composed of three phases – destabilisation, breakdown and phase-out – synchronous with the three phases of PTP dynamics. Interventions can be directed towards enabling or facilitating both of these processes (GSDR, 2023; Allen and Malekpour, 2023; Hebink et al., 2022).

We now examine the main PTP concepts in greater detail under the headings of agents, interventions, shallow and unintended consequences, and tipping cascades.