Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
PTP interventions that succeed in accelerating a reduction in GHG emissions by, for example, a switch to renewable electricity using batteries that require rare earth metals, or by expanding natural carbon sinks, could reduce access to food, livelihoods and land for vulnerable communities (Mehrabi et al., 2018). The tendency for PTPs to benefit some people while (intentionally or unintentionally) excluding others creates sacrifice zones. Well-intentioned interventions have the potential to put severe pressure on lands held by Indigenous and marginalised communities and reshape their ecologies into ‘green sacrifice zones’ by reproducing a form of climate colonialism in the name of just transitions Zografos and Robbins, 2020
Climate colonialism involves addressing the climate crisis through the continued domination of less powerful countries and peoples through initiatives that intensify foreign exploitation of their resources or undermine the sovereignty of Indigenous peoples and local communities (Sultana, 2022). Green sacrifice zones refer to ecologies, places and populations that will be severely affected by the sourcing, transportation, installation and operation of solutions for powering low-carbon transitions, as well as end-of-life treatment of related material waste (Zografos and Robbins, 2020). Such sacrifice zones are not random, but carefully chosen within a power dynamic of colonial paradigms, worldviews and technologies that reduce life by equating it to a mere capitalist resource (Gómez-Barris, 2017).
The root causes of harm are often obscured when Western knowledge and technocratic interventions are prioritised over others, but there is an emerging governance of the impacts of loss and damage that need to be taken up by decision makers (Jackson et al., 2023). One critical aspect is to shift the focus away from individual action (Newell, Twena & Daley, 2021) that places responsibility for change on those with least agency, and towards tackling the ‘polluter elite’ (Kenner, 2019; Wiedmann et al., 2020) and the infrastructure of high-impact sectors such as food and energy production, transport and housing that, combined, comprise about 75 per cent of total carbon footprints (Newell, Twena & Daley, 2021). In this, the PTP agenda could have a significant impact if it maintains reflection on who is being asked to change and why in order to drive nonlinear change.