Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Steven R. Smith, Lukas Fesenfeld, Sara M. Constantino, Franziska Gaupp, Viktoria Spaiser, Emma Bailey, Tom Powell, Caroline Zimm, Peter Barbrook-Johnson, Avit Bhowmik, Laura Pereira, Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen
Steven R. Smith, Lukas Fesenfeld, Sara M. Constantino, Franziska Gaupp, Viktoria Spaiser, Emma Bailey, Tom Powell, Caroline Zimm, Peter Barbrook-Johnson, Avit Bhowmik, Laura Pereira, Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen
The human systems and enablers of positive tipping points (PTPs) span multiple domains of technology, politics, economy and social behaviour. Many key features of Earth system tipping points ESTPs also apply to PTPs, including the presence of reinforcing and dampening feedbacks, nonlinear change, cascade effects, resilience, and path dependence. The primary differences with PTPs (as opposed to Earth System Tipping Points) are intention, agency and desired outcomes. The intention of PTPs is to promote (not prevent, as in ESTPs) tipping and system transformation. Agency is focused on interventions that maximise the potential for tipping to occur. Desired outcomes are systems-compatible with a safe and just world. To encourage desired outcomes, agents can intervene in three ways: 1) they can create the enabling conditions for a tipping point; 2) they can enhance the reinforcing feedbacks that drive change, and/or neutralise the dampening feedbacks that resist change; and 3) they can attempt to trigger positive tipping points. PTP system dynamics typically involve three phases of enabling, accelerating and then stabilising change. Once a tipping point has been crossed, a system enters an accelerating phase of nonlinear change dominated by reinforcing feedbacks, before stabilising again in a qualitatively different state. Other, undesired outcomes are also possible, including ‘shallower’, less sustainable outcomes, and unintended consequences. Tipping cascades can occur across multiple sectors and domains, as one tipping point triggers another, and then another, potentially leading to widespread societal change.