4.2.1.2 Differences between ESTPs and PTPs

One obvious difference is that PTPs usually involve intentional change. The kind of beneficial change we are interested in – ‘collective, intentional transformation towards global sustainability’ (Lenton et al., 2022, p. 2) – requires purposeful human agents, either acting alone or organised into various networks, who attempt to induce (and some who try to prevent) these tipping points (Winkelmann et al., 2022). This section therefore introduces some new terms that address the intentionality that is central to operationalising PTPs – terms such as enabling conditions (Lenton et al., 2022), and strategic interventions. As stated in 4.2.3.4, this focus on intentionality and agency does not negate the possibility of unintended PTPs or triggers. 

Another difference, compared to tipping points in the Earth system, is that human systems span very different domains, which we categorise into socio-behavioural, technological, economic and political domains (Bernstein and Hoffmann, 2018) (Figure 4.2.1). The socio-behavioural domain covers changes in social norms, lifestyles, knowledge, values and cultures. The technological domain includes innovation, research and development, adaptation, coordination, and automation of technology. The economic domain includes changes in finance, markets, labour and inequality. The political domain covers changes in the law, politics, policy, institutions and governance. The domains, systems and subsystems of human societies are constantly in flux. They interact with each other and with the Earth system in highly complex ways that can be difficult to predict or steer.

PTPs in human systems also manifest at different spatial and temporal scales to tipping points in the Earth system, as illustrated in Figure 4.2.1.

Human systems and their tipping points are also, in some ways, more difficult to define and measure than those of the Earth system (Winkelmann et al., 2022; Stadelmann-Steffen et al., 2021). Investigations of ESTPs have built strong empirical foundations based on natural laws, and on data on prior system states going back millions of years (palaeoclimatology). Quantitative units of measurement similar to those used for ESTPs are sometimes used to identify PTPs in technology and economics. But it is more difficult, and contentious, to assert tipping points for other, less-quantifiable systems concerned with change in human behaviours, practices, values and political systems. It is often not possible to identify a single parameter, mechanism or point that triggers tipping in human (social) systems, but rather multiple tipping dynamics that together trigger rapid and fundamental system change (Stadelmann-Steffen et al., 2021). In many cases, the study of tipping points in human systems has tended to rely on literature synthesis, case studies and expert elicitation to determine:

• Historical precedents – for example the shift from fossil fuels to renewables in electricity generation (4.3.1), or the Green Revolution (4.3.3).
• The key characteristics of the system.
• Boundaries that distinguish PTPs from other more established theories of societal change (Milkoreit, 2022). See Box 2.2.1 below.