Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
The extent of tipping dynamics in anomie have not been studied directly yet, but studies exist that have demonstrated tipping dynamics in phenomena that can serve as proxies for the anomic state of a society or community. Specifically, social contagion processes, which can result in tipping points, i.e. thresholds when the social contagion process becomes self-perpetuating, have been observed for mental disorders and distress, including suicide (Paz, 2022; Scatà et al., 2018), for deviant behaviours (Busching and Krahe, 2018), for norm violation (Mäs & Opp, 2016) or for distrust (Ross et al., 2022). Hence one way anomie can tip within a society is through social contagion. Care is necessary in identifying these social effects, and therefore we stress the importance of improving analysis methods in this area (Cohen-Cole and Fletcher, 2008).
Another pathway for tipping can result from a single weather extreme event, for instance triggered by an Earth system tipping point having been reached (Bruun et al., 2017, Teymoori et al., 2017). Such an event acts like a powerful lever on communities that have already started slowly sliding into anomie, for instance because of growing poverty, inequality and institutional failures (Burns, 2015) or because of a slow erosion of social norms, which can also affect affluent communities (Bursztyn et al., 2020; Piff et al., 2012). Such an extreme event would catapult the community straight to the tipping point. Members of the community could become scattered in the aftermath, leaving them with depleted social and mental resources (Miller, 2016), establishing the perception that society as a whole is failing as a new mainstream conviction (Teymoori et al., 2017). While natural and human-caused disasters can bring communities together and strengthen solidarity and cooperation, research suggests that this is often only a temporary phenomenon; when the experience of cohesion and unity in the disaster aftermath starts to wane, communities start to experience disillusionment and depression, followed by social disintegration (i.e. anomie), particularly if the community is left without adequate, long-term support (Townshend et al., 2015). Breaching Earth system tipping points could thus have immediate repercussions for societies, with one possible outcome being anomie tipping, i.e. the disintegration of the social system (chaotic, random and irregular behaviour of agents in the social system) (Bruun et al., 2017). Regions and communities most vulnerable to the impacts of Earth system tipping points are more likely to experience anomie tipping.