2.3.2.2 Anomie tipping dynamics

The extent of tipping dynamics in anomie have not been studied directly yet, but studies exist that have demonstrated tipping dynamics in phenomena that can serve as proxies for the anomic state of a society or community. Specifically, social contagion processes, which can result in tipping points, i.e. thresholds when the social contagion process becomes self-perpetuating, have been observed for mental disorders and distress, including suicide (Paz, 2022; Scatà et al., 2018), for deviant behaviours (Busching and Krahe, 2018), for norm violation (Mäs & Opp, 2016) or for distrust (Ross et al., 2022). Hence one way anomie can tip within a society is through social contagion. Care is necessary in identifying these social effects, and therefore we stress the importance of improving analysis methods in this area (Cohen-Cole and Fletcher, 2008).

Another pathway for tipping can result from a single weather extreme event, for instance triggered by an Earth system tipping point having been reached (Bruun et al., 2017, Teymoori et al., 2017). Such an event acts like a powerful lever on communities that have already started slowly sliding into anomie, for instance because of growing poverty, inequality and institutional failures (Burns, 2015) or because of a slow erosion of social norms, which can also affect affluent communities (Bursztyn et al., 2020; Piff et al., 2012). Such an extreme event would catapult the community straight to the tipping point. Members of the community could become scattered in the aftermath, leaving them with depleted social and mental resources (Miller, 2016), establishing the perception that society as a whole is failing as a new mainstream conviction (Teymoori et al., 2017). While natural and human-caused disasters can bring communities together and strengthen solidarity and cooperation, research suggests that this is often only a temporary phenomenon; when the experience of cohesion and unity in the disaster aftermath starts to wane, communities start to experience disillusionment and depression, followed by social disintegration (i.e. anomie), particularly if the community is left without adequate, long-term support (Townshend et al., 2015). Breaching Earth system tipping points could thus have immediate repercussions for societies, with one possible outcome being anomie tipping, i.e. the disintegration of the social system (chaotic, random and irregular behaviour of agents in the social system) (Bruun et al., 2017). Regions and communities most vulnerable to the impacts of Earth system tipping points are more likely to experience anomie tipping.