2.3 Negative social tipping points

Summary

This chapter describes to what extent Earth system destabilisation and tipping can trigger negative tipping in various social systems, which in turn can reinforce the destabilisation of the Earth system through reinforcing feedback effects, mainly by preventing climate action. Specifically, with the Earth system further destabilising, we are likely to see social cohesion breaking down, while mental disorders and deviant behaviours will increase, further undermining societies’ ability to respond to crises. We are also likely to see greater radicalisation of various groups and polarisation, making it harder to find collective solutions. 

Though not the only cause, escalating climate change will undermine human security through an array of indirect – at times non-linear – pathways, thereby increasing the risk of violent conflict, which in turn will undermine societies’ ability to cooperate on climate change mitigation. Further destabilisation of the Earth system is likely to trigger large-scale displacement, but also lead to trapped populations unable to leave increasingly inhospitable places. Displacement may increase ecological pressures within host communities, potentially adversely impacting the Earth system. Financial destabilisation is also likely to increase, diminishing the means to respond effectively to Earth system destabilisation.