Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Responding effectively to the current and future risks associated with Earth system tipping processes requires governance actors to leverage dynamic knowledge production systems for political decision making, policy and institutional design. The mobilisation of the ‘best available knowledge’ is recognised in the Paris Agreement (Article 7.5), encouraging interactions between different knowledge systems for enhancing climate resilience and effective adaptation.
Governance actors need to develop and frequently update a thorough and actionable understanding of Earth system tipping processes, their characteristics, differences, and likely implications for societies. Such an understanding should be based on, and evolve with, scientific information, but also other forms of knowledge, beliefs and values that contribute to meaning making. The knowledge needed to support future governance efforts should be specific for diverse actors, taking into consideration the scale and context of needed action. Hence, effective science-policy interactions at all of these scales are crucial for the adaptive, multi-scale and anticipatory governance of Earth system tipping processes.
Knowledge and continuous learning are integral to the capacities needed to anticipate and prevent harmful tipping points in the Earth system. Other capacities needed include systems thinking (conceiving of and governing the Earth as a complex interconnected system), imagination (envisioning possible futures, including pathways and solutions to address challenges related to Earth system tipping) and institutional entrepreneurship (creating initiatives within existing institutions or establishing new ones to help anticipate and prevent ESTPs). Science-policy institutions rarely focus on these capacities, and most political and knowledge institutions do not provide incentives to invest in their development.