2.5.4.2 Policy questions

4. Do climate tipping points exacerbate poverty traps and other negative development trends? One of the most severe social impacts of climate change is the potential for reversing the hard-won development gains achieved in the last two decades. It is entirely plausible that transitions in rainfall distributions or ecosystem changes driven by climate change could push people into poverty. Indeed, the World Bank estimates that climate change will push up to 130 million into poverty as a result of damage to infrastructure, changes in rainfall seasonality which will render rain-fed agriculture less predictable, and overall deterioration of environmental systems. Additional research is needed to understand which climate tipping points are likely to intersect with poverty traps to create high-risk transitions. 
5. How do multiple climate extremes and other shocks and stressors combine, especially as slow-onset climate change processes occur to drive systemic changes and tipping points? The challenges of cascading risks and tipping points are discussed in Chapter 2.4. Evidence suggests that severe climate events, such as droughts and hurricanes, can result in highly complex social change, including deterioration of livelihoods, migration and conflict (Burrows and Kinney, 2016). Additional research is required to understand if and how climate and social tipping points interact, and whether one tipping point can result in a plethora of other transitions.
6. As critical transitions unfold, how does the risk landscape shift in response? Societies respond to environmental stress and resource scarcities. However, these responses may lead to new risks. For example, as pastures become less viable (due to overgrazing), new risks are created as pastoralists shift grazing patterns to marginal agricultural areas or shift migration routes and deplete resources in other areas (both of which can increase land degradation and desertification rates). Understanding how critical transitions affect the current (and future) risk landscape can provide essential information for decision makers to prioritise investments in adaptation and mitigation.
7. What are the processes required to integrate research into policymaking? There is growing research on early warning signals for tipping points. However, once suitable datasets and early warning diagnostics are identified, what are the enabling processes and steps required to integrate actionable early warning systems into decision making? To illustrate, while research has shown the potential to use remotely sensed soil moisture for food security early warning, precipitation and vegetation indices are still the go-to metrics – largely because of familiarity with these products. New data analytics, dashboards and communications material may go a long way towards facilitating the transition to early warning systems of tipping points that can translate into action.