Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Tensions between these two imperatives – the need for speed and for depth – support arguments for the governance of PTPs (Anderson et al., 2023). On the one hand, one might argue that since every additional tonne of GHG emissions adds to the toll in human lives, and every additional fraction of a degree of global heating multiplies threats, including the threat of ESTPs, then speed equals justice. On the other hand, if the speed of decarbonisation and the upscaling of technological change are the sole considerations, this offers carte blanche to the most powerful, dominant actors to restructure the new post-carbon economy in ways that maintain existing power, gender, and socioeconomic inequalities (Newell, Geels and Sovacool, 2022; Gabor, 2023).
In this scenario, while tipping points in technological innovations alone could conceivably save more lives, they could also squander a unique opportunity for greater inclusivity and ‘depth’ in the redesign of society along more equitable lines (Leach and Scoones, 2006). For example, instead of an energy system composed of a massively distributed network of community-owned and managed cooperatives offering very low-cost, secure energy, we may enter a post-carbon society in which a small number of oligopolistic energy suppliers continue to command a high price and reap extortionate profits (Stone et al., 2021; Hoffman and High-Pippert, 2005). One example that demonstrates governance that respects both the need for renewables and concern over ownerships and consolidation – speed as well as depth – can be found, for example, in Denmark, where there is a minimum requirement of 20 per cent community ownership of wind power (Mey and Diesendorf, 2018).
Using metaphorical scales of justice, some might judge that a rapid transition that saves more lives (speed) outweighs the benefits of a longer struggle for energy democracy (depth) – where, for the sake of argument, these are perceived to be mutually exclusive. But these and other competing claims for justice at least deserve due consideration. Governments themselves are highly unlikely to initiate action that disrupts dominant systems of power in which they are key players. Instead, governance that encompasses other, non-state actors, beginning with social movements and civil society, would be expected to initiate these forms of political struggle (Smith et al., 2020).