Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
The transition to EVs has been widely discussed as approaching a tipping point in some countries, and having passed one in others (Meldrum et al,. 2023, see 4.3.2.2). By analysing sales data of EVs (including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)), and internal-combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), we can attempt to detect this transition by measuring the resilience of markets for both the incumbent and the new technology. The EV transition involves strong feedbacks between technological development that makes EVs more affordable, accessible and attractive, and changes in the social domain, including public interest in and perception of EVs (Figure 4.4.8). To understand this social dimension of the transition, we also consider the frequency with which people view EVs in the UK on AutoTrader, an online marketplace site (Boulton et al., 2023).
If we consider the automotive industry as a complex system, consisting of an interconnected ecosystem of, among other things, production, sales and public preference and needs, then the question arises of whether we can measure the resilience of this system in a comparable way to a ‘natural’ ecosystem, such as a rainforest.
While numerous factors might affect the stability of this system, such as supply chain resilience, one simple metric is to consider the sales of vehicles. This can be affected by economic shocks, and recovery from shocks could provide an indication of the resilience of this system.
One such event is the 2008 financial crisis which, among other impacts, caused a rapid decline in vehicle sales across many major markets (Figure 4.4.9). For Denmark and the US, this perturbation caused an initial sharp decline in sales, which then recovered over subsequent years. The faster recovery rate of sales in Denmark suggests a more resilient market (and wider economy) than that of the US. Car sales in Greece also suffered because of the wider economic crisis caused by the 2008 financial crisis, and here there is no observable return, with the system tipping into an apparently alternate stable state of very low car sales; thus suggesting very little resilience prior to 2008. The effect of government intervention to support the automotive industry as a significant employer can be seen in Germany (Haugh et al., 2010), where incentives provided a boost to sales in 2009. A similar scheme in the US resulted in a brief spike in sales that same year, however true recovery took longer, again suggesting lower resilience.
While this approach does not delve deeply into the underlying structure of the automotive industry and the fact that the 2008 financial crisis occurred as a different perturbation in different economies, it illustrates an approach to applying concepts of resilience from the natural sciences to broader socio-economic questions.