Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Two finance-related interventions identified by Farmer et al. (2019) include financial disclosure and the early identification of combinations of new technologies to invest in. Such actions can be interpreted as small kicks that can initiate behavioural changes or endogenous shifts in the system’s dynamics. Changes in accounting standards and disclosure requirements can significantly alter the value of fossil assets, limiting the development of new projects, reducing committed emissions and thus facilitating the transformation of the energy industry (Le Ravalec et al., 2022; Rambaud and Chenet, 2021). Additionally, low-carbon technologies, given their capital-intensive nature, are subject to much higher investment risk than fossil fuel-based incumbents (Schmidt, 2014). Such risk needs to be managed and/or diversified. Hence, focusing resources on specific technological complementarities (e.g. solar PV and energy storage) as early as possible, rather than investing across a broad range of options, can accelerate the development and deployment of novel and unproven technologies. This concentration of resources and identification of complementarities reduces uncertainty surrounding new technologies and enhances the spread of related knowledge and experience.
The utilisation of policy mixes that incorporate a combination of command-and-control and market-based instruments can be likened to kicks that yield positive outcomes for the transition to a net-zero carbon economy (Robalino and Lempert, 2000). Recent advancements in modelling have demonstrated that these policy combinations have the potential to initiate a virtuous cycle, driving technological development, reducing the overall need for public investment, and simultaneously stimulating employment and economic growth (Wieners et al., 2023; Lamperti et al., 2020; Lamperti and Roventini, 2022; Stern and Stiglitz, 2023). Moreover, such positive feedback loops significantly lessen the reliance on carbon taxes by decreasing their intensity. As a result, this enhances their political acceptability and potentially triggers another tipping element.