3.2.3 Prevention approaches and institutional options

The recognition of multiple drivers of tipping processes is important for thinking about prevention approaches. But given the important (direct or indirect) role of increasing atmospheric temperatures for almost all Earth system tipping processes, the central focus of tipping point prevention efforts has to be mitigation – the reduction of both long-lived and short-lived GHG emissions to the atmosphere. These need to be coordinated with parallel efforts to address various other drivers.

Deep and early emission reductions based on principles of international law (Rajamani et al., 2021) are a core part of any effective prevention strategy for almost all tipping points (see Section 4 for approaches to accelerating decarbonisation). It is the only reliable way to limit global temperature increase, which can prevent the crossing of most tipping points altogether. Existing global governance efforts supporting mitigation should be strengthened immediately and maximised in the future (see Chapter 3.1). Urgent efforts to support social transformations, reducing emissions more deeply and rapidly than can be achieved through conventional policies, market mechanisms and technological substitution, are justified by the substantial co-benefits for health, livelihoods and equity that such transformations offer (see also Section 4 on positive social tipping points). To best support tipping point prevention, mitigation efforts should focus on long-lived GHG emission-reduction efforts, supported by measures to cut SLCPs and to develop and scale up GHG removal as a supplement to emissions reduction.

Other drivers of Earth system tipping processes (see Table 3.2.1) are tipping point specific and may work at different spatial and temporal scales to global temperature change. These other causes are frequently more localised (e.g. the role of deforestation in accelerating the tipping of the Amazon, or water pollution in influencing the die-off of coral reefs), and can be associated with a specific set of stakeholders. Therefore, more national, regional or local prevention strategies that can take the specific characteristics of the tipping system into account will be needed. Many governance actors, especially local jurisdictions, will need guidance and support to identify and effectively prioritise prevention measures. 

The following sections explore existing governance mechanisms for the mitigation of long-lived GHGs (3.2.3.1) and SLCPs (3.2.3.2), the emerging conversation regarding carbon removal (3.2.3.3) and solar geoengineering (3.2.3.4), as well as existing institutions that can address non-climate causes of specific tipping elements (3.2.3.5). We discuss how existing governance efforts could be strengthened or complemented with new approaches to consider the risk of crossing climate tipping points.