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Report 2023
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Global Tipping Points main website
Report 2023
About
What is a Tipping Point?
Tipping Points Conference
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Contact
Summary Report
- Narrative summary
- Infographic
- Key messages
- Key recommendations
- Section 1: Earth system tipping points
- Section 2: Tipping point impacts
- Section 3: Governance of Earth system tipping points
- Section 4: Positive tipping points in technology, economy and society
Introduction
- Foreword
- Introduction
- Approach
- Key concepts
- References
Summary Report
- - - Summary
      
      Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
      
      In the Summary Report:
      
      • Narrative summary
      • Global tipping points infographic
      • Key messages
      • Key Recommendations
      
      Executive summary
      • Section 1
      • Section 2
      • Section 3
      • Section 4
  - - Downloads
      
      Summary
      Report
  - - Full
      Report
  - - Key
      Messages
  - - Key
      Recommendations
  - - Global tipping points
      Infographic
Introduction
- - - Why we need to talk about tipping points
      
      This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
      
      In this section:
      
      • Foreword
      • Introduction
      • Key Concepts
      • Approach
      • References
      
      Introduction: Download PDF [1.8mb]
Section 1
- - - 1: Earth System Tipping Points
      
      Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
      
      • Section Summary
      • Key messages
      • Recommendations
      
      Section 1: Download PDF [45mb]
  - - 1.1 Introduction
      1.2 Tipping points in the cryosphere
      1.2.1 Introduction
      1.2.2 Current state of knowledge on cryosphere tipping points
      1.2.2.1 Ice sheets
      1.2.2.2 Sea ice
      1.2.2.3 Glaciers
      1.2.2.4 Permafrost
      1.2.3 Final remarks
      1.3 Tipping points in the biosphere
      1.3.1 Introduction
      1.3.2 Current state of knowledge on tipping points in the biosphere
      1.3.2.1 Tropical forests
      1.3.2.2 Boreal forests & tundra
      1.3.2.3 Temperate forests
      1.3.2.4 Savannas & grasslands
      1.3.2.5 Drylands
      1.3.2.6 Freshwater ecosystems
      1.3.2.7 Coastal ecosystems
      1.3.2.8 Marine ecosystems & environment
      1.3.3 Final remarks
      1.4 Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
      1.4.1 Introduction
      1.4.2 Current state of knowledge on ocean and atmosphere circulation tipping points
      1.4.2.1 Atlantic circulation
      1.4.2.2 Southern Ocean circulation
      1.4.2.3 Monsoons
      1.4.2.4 Tropical clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity
      1.4.2.5 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
      1.4.2.6 Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics
      1.5 Climate tipping point interactions and cascades
      1.5.1 Introduction and definition
      1.5.2 Interactions between climate tipping systems and further nonlinear climate components
      1.5.2.1 Interactions across scales in space and time
      1.5.2.2 Interactions between ice sheets and AMOC
      1.5.2.3 Arctic sea ice interactions
      1.5.2.4 Effects of AMOC changes on the Amazon rainforest
      1.5.2.5 Interactions between ENSO and tipping systems
      1.5.2.6 Effects of permafrost thaw on the global hydrological cycle
      1.5.3 Archetypal examples of interactions between tipping systems from a palaeoclimatic perspective
      1.5.3.1 Interactions in the distant past: the Eocene-Oligocene Transition
      1.5.3.2 Interactions during and since the last glacial period
      1.5.4 Interactions between tipping systems and planetary-scale cascades
      1.5.5 Final remarks
      1.6 Early warning signals of Earth system tipping points
      1.6.1 Theory and methods of early warning signals
      1.6.1.1 Theory of critical slowing down
      1.6.1.2 Temporal methods
      1.6.1.3 Spatial methods
      1.6.1.4 Network methods
      1.6.1.5 Model methods
      1.6.1.6 Limitations
      1.6.2 Case studies of empirically measured EWS
      1.6.2.1 Cryosphere: Ice sheets and sea ice
      1.6.2.2 Biosphere: Amazon rainforest dieback
      1.6.2.3 Ocean: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
      1.6.3 Recommendations and looking ahead
      1.6.3.1 Increasing data availability
      1.6.3.2 Models and EWS of tipping points
      1.6.3.3 Applications of AI for predicting tipping points
      1.6.4 Final Remarks
      1.7 Earth system tipping points – synthesis
      1.7.1 Key messages
      1.7.2 Recommendations
      References
1. Earth System Tipping Points
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 Tipping points in the cryosphere
  - 1.2.1 Introduction
  - 1.2.2 Current state of knowledge on cryosphere tipping points
- 1.3 Tipping points in the biosphere
- 1.4 Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
  - 1.4.1 Introduction
  - 1.4.2 Current state of knowledge on ocean and atmosphere circulation tipping points
- 1.5 Climate tipping point interactions and cascades
- 1.6 Early warning signals of Earth system tipping points
- 1.7 Earth System Tipping Points – Synthesis
- References
Section 2
- - - 2: Tipping point impacts
      
      Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
      
      • Section Summary
      • Key messages
      • Recommendations
      
      Section 2: Download PDF [6mb]
  - - 2.1 Introduction
      2.2 Assessing Impacts of Earth System Tipping Points on Human Societies
      2.2.1 Introduction
      2.2.2 Impacts of cryosphere tipping points
      2.2.2.1 Ice sheets
      2.2.2.2 Sea ice
      2.2.2.3 Permafrost
      2.2.3 Impacts of biosphere tipping points
      2.2.3.1 Amazon dieback
      2.2.3.2 Methane hydrate destabilisation
      2.2.4 Impacts of ocean-atmosphere circulation tipping points
      2.2.4.1 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
      2.2.5 Potential for Earth system tipping points to magnify or accelerate impacts of global warming
      2.2.6 Sector-based impacts assessment of climate system tipping points
      2.2.6.1 Water security
      2.2.6.2 Food security
      2.2.6.3 Energy security
      2.2.6.4 Health
      2.2.6.5 Biodiversity and ecosystem services
      2.2.6.6 Communities, economies and displacement
      2.3 Negative social tipping points
      2.3.1 Introduction
      2.3.2. Anomie
      2.3.2.1 Earth system destabilisation and anomie
      2.3.2.2 Anomie tipping dynamics
      2.3.2.3 Anomie feedback on the Earth system
      2.3.3. Radicalisation & polarisation
      2.3.3.1 Earth system destabilisation and radicalisation and polarisation
      2.3.3.2 Radicalisation and polarisation tipping dynamics
      2.3.3.3 Radicalisation and polarisation feedback on the Earth system
      2.3.4 Displacement
      2.3.4.1 Earth system destabilisation and displacement
      2.3.4.2 Displacement tipping dynamics
      2.3.4.3. Displacement Feedback on the Earth System
      2.3.5. Violent conflict
      2.3.5.1 Earth system destabilisation and violent conflict
      2.3.5.2 Violent conflict tipping dynamics
      2.3.5.3 Violent conflict feedback on the Earth system
      2.3.6 Financial destabilisation
      2.3.6.1 Earth system destabilisation and financial destabilisation
      2.3.6.2 Financial destabilisation tipping dynamic
      2.3.6.3 Financial destabilisation feedback on the Earth system
      2.4 Cascades of tipping in impacts
      2.4.1 Introduction
      2.4.2 Research approach
      2.4.3 State of literature on cascades and tipping points
      2.4.4 Case phenomena exemplifying tipping cascades
      2.4.4.1 Amazon rainforest
      2.4.4.2 Coral reef degradation and small-scale fisheries
      2.4.4.3 Forced migration
      2.4.4.4 The Arab Spring
      2.4.4.5 Shrinkage of Lake Chad
      2.4.5 Future research needs
      2.4.5.1 Clarification of concepts
      2.4.5.2 Key systems for research
      2.4.5.3 Key methodological advances
      2.4.5.4 Key governance implications
      2.5 Early warning of tipping points in impacts
      2.5.1 Early warning signals in social-ecological systems: The challenge
      2.5.2 Early warning signals: What can we learn from social-ecological models?
      2.5.3 State of Affairs: Application of early warning signals in social-ecological systems
      2.5.3.1 Food security
      2.5.3.2 Tipping points in managed vegetation systems
      2.5.3.3. Tipping points to detect anomie
      2.5.3.4 Tipping points to detect social crises
      2.5.4 Where next: Areas of future research
      2.5.4.1 Data questions
      2.5.4.2 Policy questions
      References
2. Tipping point impacts
- 2.1 Introduction
- 2.2 Assessing Impacts of Earth System Tipping Points on Human Societies
- 2.3 Negative social tipping points
- 2.4 Cascades of tipping in impacts
- 2.5 Early warning of tipping points in impacts
- References
Section 3
- - - 3: Governance of Earth system tipping points
      
      Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
      
      • Section Summary
      • Key messages
      • Recommendations
      
      Section 3: Download PDF [4mb]
  - - 3.1 Introduction
      3.1.1 A New governance agenda for Earth system tipping points
      3.1.2 Governance goals and principles
      3.1.2.1 Governance goals
      3.1.2.2 Governance Principles
      3.1.3 Actors, institutions, and scales of action
      3.1.3.1 The multiple sales of tipping point governance
      3.1.3.2 The international climate change regime
      3.1.3.3 Other existing institutions and actors
      3.1.4 The politics of tipping-point governance
      3.1.5 Public communication and risk perceptions
      3.1.6 Final remarks
      3.2 Prevention of Earth system tipping processes
      3.2.1 Prevention as a governance goal
      3.2.2 Multiple drivers of tipping processes
      3.2.3 Prevention approaches and institutional options
      3.2.3.1 Mitigation
      3.2.3.2 Short-lived climate pollutants
      3.2.3.3 Carbon dioxide removal
      3.2.3.4 Solar geoengineering
      3.2.3.5 Addressing other causes of tipping
      3.2.4 The politics of prevention
      3.2.5 Final remarks
      3.3 Tipping point impact governance
      3.3.1 Rethinking impact governance for global environmental change
      3.3.1.1 The rationale for ESTP impact governance
      3.3.1.2 Matching problem scales and institutions
      3.3.1.3 Relevant actors and policy domains
      3.3.2 Challenges of tipping point impact governance
      3.3.2.1 Magnitude of change
      3.3.2.2 Speed of change
      3.3.2.3 Impact distribution and new vulnerabilities
      3.3.2.4 Novel impact types
      3.3.2.5 Irreversibility and permanence of change
      3.3.2.6 Secondary or cascading impacts
      3.3.3 Governance of ESTP impacts
      3.3.3.1 Objectives of ESTP impact governance
      3.3.3.2 Multi-level, multi-phase, and multi-network governance
      3.3.3.3 Early warning systems
      3.3.3.4 Cascade governance
      3.3.3.5 Justice, equity and distribution of vulnerability
      3.3.4 Final remarks
      3.4 Knowledge co-production and science-policy engagement
      3.4.1 Knowledge needs, status quo, and learning challenges
      3.4.1.1 Knowledge needs
      3.4.1.2 Status quo
      3.4.1.3 Learning challenges
      3.4.2 Needed knowledges and knowledge production
      3.4.2.1 Knowledge characteristics
      3.4.2.2 Knowledge-production processes
      3.4.3 Effective science-policy interactions for tipping point governance
      3.4.3.1 Building on existing science-policy engagement processes
      3.4.3.2. Using early warning signals?
      3.4.4 Knowledge politics
      3.4.5 Final remarks
      References
3. Governance of Earth system tipping points
- 3.1 Governing Earth system tipping points – Introduction
- 3.2 Prevention of Earth system tipping processes
- 3.3 Tipping point impact governance
- 3.4 Knowledge co-production and science-policy engagement
- References
Section 4
- - - 4: Positive tipping points in technology, economy and society
      
      Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
      
      • Section Summary
      • Key messages
      • Recommendations
      
      Section 4: Download PDF [5mb]
  - - 4.1 Introduction
      4.2 Understanding and acting on positive tipping points
      4.2.1 Introduction
      4.2.1.1 Similarities between ESTPs and PTPs
      4.2.1.2 Differences between ESTPs and PTPs
      4.2.1.3 Not all systems have tipping points
      4.2.1.4 PTP dynamics
      4.2.2 Agents
      4.2.3 Interventions
      4.2.3.1 Enabling Conditions
      4.2.3.2 Reinforcing feedbacks
      4.2.3.3 Dampening feedbacks
      4.2.3.4 Triggers of positive tipping
      4.2.4 Shallow and unintended consequences
      4.2.5 Tipping cascades
      4.3 Positive tipping points in energy, transport and food systems
      4.3.1 Energy systems
      4.3.1.1 Introduction
      4.3.1.2 Fast growth in renewable electricity supply drives social tipping in the energy system
      4.3.1.3 Positive tipping dynamics that build on the fast growth in wind and solar technologies and services
      4.3.2 Transport and mobility systems
      4.3.2.1 Introduction
      4.3.2.2 Improving passenger transport with the transition to electric vehicles
      4.3.2.3 Shifting to enhanced active mobility
      4.3.2.4 Enhanced heavy capacity public transport networks
      4.3.2.5 Positive tipping points in other transport systems
      4.3.3 Food systems
      4.3.3.1 Introduction
      4.3.3.2 Avoiding food loss and waste
      4.3.3.3 Shifting towards more plant-based diets
      4.3.3.4 Improving alternatives to animal products
      4.3.3.5 Shifting Farming Practice
      4.3.3.6 Food system tipping points have important feedbacks for protecting nature
      4.3.3.7 Strategic interventions to enable positive tipping points in food systems
      4.4 Cross-cutting enablers of positive tipping points
      4.4.1 Socio-behavioural systems
      4.4.1.1 Introduction
      4.4.1.2 Social norms facilitate tipping and can themselves tip
      4.4.1.3 Social movements as norm entrepreneurs
      4.4.1.4 Policies that facilitate tipping in social norms
      4.4.1.5 The role of climate education and engagement
      4.4.2 Political systems
      4.4.2.1 Introduction
      4.4.2.2 Political systems can enable (or dampen) social tipping
      4.4.2.3 Political systems themselves can tip
      4.4.2.4 Civil society & political tipping: The role of social movements and coalition formation
      4.4.2.5 International climate governance and the diffusion of political change
      4.4.3. Financial systems
      4.4.3.1 Introduction
      4.4.3.2 Feedbacks between public and private finance
      4.4.3.3 Strategic policy intervention
      4.4.3.4 Accelerating renewables investment in the Global South
      4.4.3.5 Tipping points in financing of fossil fuels
      4.4.4 Digitalisation
      4.4.4.1 Introduction
      4.4.4.2 Conceptual underpinnings
      4.4.4.3 Digital technologies and avoid options: Teleworking
      4.4.4.4 Digital technologies and shift options: Mobility-as-a-Service
      4.4.4.5 Digital technologies and improve options: Smart homes
      4.4.4.6 Other domains where digital technologies can enable positive tipping
      4.4.4.7 Strategic interventions
      4.4.5 Detecting ‘early opportunity indicators’ for positive tipping points
      4.4.5.1 Predicting tipping points
      4.4.5.2 Detecting early opportunity signals indicators in the electric vehicle transition
      4.4.5.3 Resilience change prior to the EV transition tipping point
      4.4.5.4 Changes detectable in other social data?
      4.4.5.5 Limitations
      4.4.5.6 Measuring progress – Early opportunity indicators in other sectors
      4.5 Positive tipping cascades
      4.5.1 Introduction
      4.5.2 Cross-system interactions leading to cascades
      4.5.2.1. Cascading effects in sociotechnical systems
      4.5.2.2 Cascading effects in social-ecological systems
      4.5.2.3 Cascading effects in sociopolitical systems
      4.5.3 Harnessing the power of cascades
      4.6 Risks, equity and justice in the governance of positive tipping points
      4.6.1 Introduction
      4.6.2 What do we mean by equity and justice?
      4.6.3 Governance of PTPs
      4.6.3.1 A polycentric approach to PTP governance
      4.6.3.2 Making the case for PTP governance
      4.6.3.3 Metaphorical scales of justice
      4.6.4 Blind spots, risks and unintended consequences
      4.6.4.1 Examples of negative consequences
      4.6.5 Winners and losers: sacrifice zones
      4.6.6 Self-determination for the Global South
      4.6.7 Forms of equity and justice
      4.6.8 Implications for practice
      4.6.8.1 Policymakers
      4.6.8.2 Finance
      4.6.8.3 Business
      4.6.8.4 Media and discourse
      4.6.8.5 Researchers
      4.6.8.6 Embrace creative co-production
      References
4. Positive tipping points in technology, economy and society
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Understanding and acting on positive tipping points
- 4.3 Positive tipping points in energy, transport and food systems
- 4.4 Cross-cutting enablers of positive tipping points
- 4.5 Positive tipping cascades
- 4.6 Risks, equity and justice in the governance of positive tipping points
- References
Appendices
- Appendix 1: Glossary
- Appendix 2: List of Contributing authors and reviewers

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