2.2.6.3 Energy security

A collapse of the AMOC would lead to widescale cooling of the northern hemisphere, particularly in Europe and North America (Jackson et al., 2015; Stouffer et al., 2006), which could lead to increased demand for energy for heating. One study (Jacob et al., 2005) suggested increases in heating energy consumption of 10-20 per cent in the UK and Europe. Regional changes in weather patterns might also have an impact on energy generation, for instance through changes in precipitation (Haarsma, 2015; Jackson et al., 2015) which might affect hydropower, changes in average cloud amounts (Jackson et al., 2015; Laurian, 2010) which could affect solar power, and changes in windiness (Jackson et al., 2015) which could affect wind energy. However, these potential societal impacts from regional changes in weather patterns from AMOC collapse have not yet been assessed.

Thermal power stations (including both fossil fuel and nuclear) are often sited on coasts to provide access to water for cooling, so are potentially vulnerable to sea level rise triggered by ice sheet tipping points, while Amazon dieback could affect the production of electricity from hydropower on rivers in the Amazon region. A potential 40 per cent decline in forest cover by 2050 is projected to lead to hydrological power generation in the Xingu basin to fall to approximately 25 per cent of maximum installed capacity due to reduced river discharge (Stickler et al., 2013).

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