Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Earth system models can provide information on where to look for temporal and spatial EWS with empirical data, as well as to help determine what processes are most appropriate to monitor.
Systematic efforts to identify tipping points in Earth system models, such as the new Tipping Point Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip), will help to catalogue which variables we should focus on for different tipping points. For example, examining simulated sea surface height, temperature and salinity data prior to modelled abrupt shifts in the subpolar gyre, while incorporating known uncertainties in remote sensing, could determine which remotely sensed data are most informative and where additional monitoring could add value.
The unprecedented amount of Earth observation data originating from remote sensing systems, field measurements and simulated data, coupled with innovative Earth system models and cutting-edge computing, has made possible the concept of an Earth ‘digital twin’ that can be studied in detail. This concept will allow us to explore the different components of the Earth system and natural and human-induced changes to identify EWS.