1.6.3.2 Models and EWS of tipping points

Earth system models can provide information on where to look for temporal and spatial EWS with empirical data, as well as to help determine what processes are most appropriate to monitor. 

Systematic efforts to identify tipping points in Earth system models, such as the new Tipping Point Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip), will help to catalogue which variables we should focus on for different tipping points. For example, examining simulated sea surface height, temperature and salinity data prior to modelled abrupt shifts in the subpolar gyre, while incorporating known uncertainties in remote sensing, could determine which remotely sensed data are most informative and where additional monitoring could add value.

The unprecedented amount of Earth observation data originating from remote sensing systems, field measurements and simulated data, coupled with innovative Earth system models and cutting-edge computing, has made possible the concept of an Earth ‘digital twin’ that can be studied in detail. This concept will allow us to explore the different components of the Earth system and natural and human-induced changes to identify EWS.

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