4.4.2.4 Civil society & political tipping: The role of social movements and coalition formation

To date, most countries have taken relatively modest action on climate change. This has been the case for a host of reasons, including those mentioned in section 4.2.3.3 on dampening effects. One reason for the lack of political will to fight climate change stems from policymakers’ beliefs  (including in non-democratic regimes) that they lack the mandate for drastic climate policies (Kneuer 2012; Stokes, 2015; Willis 2018). Indeed, research has shown that there are substantial misperceptions among political actors regarding the policy preferences of their constituents, including underestimation of support for a carbon tax (Mildenberger and Tingley, 2019). Civic and political behaviour, including voting behaviour, diverse forms of political participation and the emergence of effective social movements, increases the visibility of public preferences, puts pressure on incumbents to take action on climate change, and can even lead to new leadership (Kuran, 1989). For instance, the German Energiewende/EEG law, which was crucial for initiating the global solar power boom (see Chapter 4.2), would not have been possible without social change in German society, which brought the Green Party into government in 1998 (Hake et al., 2015). Similarly, the CFC ban to protect the ozone layer was also facilitated by shifts in social norms, mass boycotts of products containing CFCs, and public demand for laws banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (Stadelmann-Steffen et al., 2021).

Civil society plays a crucial role in creating enabling conditions for political tipping. Successful social movements, such as the transnational abolitionist movement, played a huge role in shifting societal perceptions and norms and ultimately effecting political change by advocating for the moral unacceptability of slavery. They did so through publications, public education, public responses to arguments, appealing to opponents’ values, placing actors of change in core institutions, mass petitioning, litigation, supporting slavery victims and boycotting slave-produced goods, and through leading by example (e.g. former slave owners freeing slaves) (Oldfield, 2013). Crucially, the movement understood the need to create links with policymakers and the importance of building political coalitions. They also made use of litigation, using progressive national law to advance their cause. A similar strategy is increasingly adopted by climate movements. For example, in the Youth plaintiffs in Held vs. State of Montana (US) Climate Case, a judge ruled in August 2023 that it is against the constitution for a state to fail to consider climate change when approving new fossil fuel projects. The national law referenced in this case was the right of state residents (in this case the young plaintiffs) to a clean and healthy environment, including a stable climate. The interplay of national law and civil society enforcing accountability could be a powerful driver for political and social change. 

Key challenges for social movements in the longer term include maintaining the authenticity of the message, the commitment and the mutual trust of the base of support, while also leveraging the connections and resources of the wider political network and coalition (Newell, 2015). In democratic countries, coalitions for radical policy change are unlikely to succeed until politicians are first emboldened by the political legitimacy of a broad, popular mandate (DNZ, 2021; Newell, Daley, and Twena, 2021; Willis, 2020). Advocacy for radical change therefore begins in social movements and proceeds, over years and decades, to build coalitions to persuade ‘the changeable people…’ (Commissioner Tim Kasser, quoted in Newell, Daley, and Twena, 2021, p.43).

Although a simple, linear sequence may be of limited use in describing the interdependent complexities of rapid social change, it could be argued that it typically begins with the problem/issue, proceeding with a political process, and ultimately becoming a policy process (Smith, 2022), as summarised in Figure 4.4.4.