4.5.2.3 Cascading effects in sociopolitical systems

The interaction between society and policy can be key to tipping global carbon emissions by creating cascading effects through individual action, social conformity, public discourse, climate policy and technological learning. For example, simulation results suggest that individual action is ineffectual unless the social credibility of costly behavioural change is high (Moore et al., 2022). 

Society affects policy in multiple ways: First, adoption of niche technologies signals readiness for wider policy change; early cost reductions reinforce the policy ambition towards stimulating such technologies further; and coalitions of early adopters influence politics for more aggressive policy response (Schmidt and Sewerin, 2017). Societal readiness affects pro-environmental policies, especially on a local scale, as exemplified by different car-sharing policies of local authorities in the Netherlands (Meelen et al., 2019), different solar photovoltaic policies of German states (Dewald and Truffer, 2012), and the positive tipping dynamics observed in the UK’s offshore wind production and EV sales due to policies following an increase in public concern and attention (Geels and Ayoub, 2023). Second, social movements affect policy, either in legislation or in agenda setting. Civic action preceding and during Conference of Parties (COP) (Carattini and Löschel, 2021) and resistance to local fossil fuel projects have been able to cancel or suspend such projects (Piggot, 2018; Temper et al., 2020) or create non-fossil fuel energy policies (Hielscher et al., 2022). In a third and fundamental way, society influences policy through the election of politicians and policymakers. In Europe and the US, for instance, public risk perception has resulted in green voting after extreme climate events (Hazlett and Mildenberger, 2020; Hoffmann et al., 2022), even though income and political identity play a strong mediating role. Therefore, society provides the political legitimacy and democratic mandate that policymakers need to support radical policy change (Willis, 2020; Smith, 2023).

Another socio-political phenomenon that can trigger a tipping cascade is the spike in climate litigation cases worldwide. Climate litigation describes administrative, judicial and other investigatory cases that raise issues of law related to climate change, and it reflects underlying sociocultural changes. Since 2015, climate litigation cases have more than doubled worldwide, surpassing 2,000 in May 2022 (and representing 25 per cent of all cases filed between 2020 and 2022) (Setzer and Higham, 2022). They reflect climate action from diverse citizens (e.g. children in Germany or the Netherlands, grandmothers in Switzerland, a Peruvian farmer against a German energy company) in various jurisdictions (against governments, banks and large corporations in emission-intensive sectors) to advance climate action or to challenge how and which climate policies are implemented.

Policies have a direct and significant impact on society by creating an enabling environment for the adoption of low-carbon technologies and behaviours through financial support, infrastructure design, regulations, standards and bans. For instance, subsidisation of low-carbon energy (Otto et al., 2020) or transport modes, and tax benefits of EVs (Sharpe and Lenton, 2021) are government-led positive tipping interventions that can accelerate the adoption of these technologies and create cascading effects on energy and transport systems (4.3.1 and 4.3.2). Moreover, policies have a secondary impact on society by signalling what is socially approved or disapproved and setting social norms (Hoff and Walsh, 2019), according to a mechanism called the ‘expressive function of law’ (McAdams, 2015; Sunstein, 1996). Several studies confirm the expressive function of law in other contexts, such as compulsory voting in Switzerland (Funk, 2007), legalising same-sex marriage in the US (Tankard and Paluck, 2017) and social-distancing policies during COVID-19 lockdowns in the UK (Galbiati et al., 2021).

The tipping of socio-political systems can also be triggered by public discourses that have cascading effects on public opinion, political priorities, policymaking, legitimacy, credibility, social norms, values and mobilisation (Dryzek, 1997; Dryzek, 2001; Bradford, 2016). For instance, the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al Gore in 2007 marked a tipping point in climate change discourse (Walsh, 2007), contributing to increased global awareness, strengthened political commitment, enhanced credibility for the IPCC, catalysed climate activism, and influenced future global agreements and sub-national actions (Schiermeier and Tollefson, 2007). Similarly, the Earthrise image taken by the Apollo 8 mission crew in 1968 (Poole, 2008) served as a tipping point contributing to a shift in public opinion and environmental awareness (Schroeder, 2009). This and similar images produce what is known as the ‘overview effect’ (Yaden et al., 2016), evoking a sense of awe and interconnectedness with Earth’s systems and inspiring international cooperation in addressing environmental challenges (Logan, Berman, Berman and Prescott, 2020). Some have claimed that the photograph influenced environmental policy and institutions, including the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the United States (Collins, Genet, and Christian, 2013). Reframing international climate policy from burden-sharing to win-win (Jaeger et al., 2012) is considered a key factor leading to the acceptance of the Paris Agreement, and such transformative win-win narratives in the economic, cultural and financial contexts can also accelerate climate action (Hinkel et al., 2020).   

Policies can also create tipping cascades by affecting society through the political-economic system. The societal paradigm shift towards a global neoliberal capitalist economic system in the late 1970s is an intriguing example of a whole-society cascade of change. The crisis of Keynesianism in the late 1970s, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the oil price shocks, and trade union disputes, caused a shift in public opinion and provided the political opportunity for Neoliberalism, which used state power to expand the role of markets, competition, and individual responsibility in society. Prior to its ascendency, the Neoliberal project had spent 50 years developing a coherent philosophy, a compelling narrative, a detailed policy portfolio and a network of political support ready for favourable conditions to emerge (Davies and Gane, 2021; Newell, 2018; Brown, 2015; Mirowski and Plehwe, 2015; Burgin, 2012). The historical lessons to be learned in relation to society-wide tipping cascades include the importance of having a portfolio of policies and an effective advocacy coalition ready for a window of political opportunity. 

Besides the broader economic system they create, the economic influence of policies on society can lead to positive or negative cascades in more specific ways. For instance, mechanisms like mitigation taxes may create new government revenue streams: a carbon price of $50 per tonne of CO₂ in 2030 is estimated to lead to a rise in government revenue amounting to approximately 1 per cent of GDP for several G20 nations, and significantly higher increases in some countries (IMF/OECD, 2021). On the other hand, as the economy moves away from fossil fuels, tax revenues from carbon-intensive industries and associated sectors such as tourism and agriculture are likely to shrink (Agarwal, et al., 2021; Bachner and Bednar-Friedl, 2018). For example, a climate policy package focused on long-term decarbonisation across the economy in India is estimated to reduce government fuel tax revenues by nearly US$70bn (2018) by 2050 (Swamy, Mitra, Agarwal, Mahajan and Orvis, 2021). The net impact on government revenues from such varied streams can have societal implications on education, infrastructure and healthcare expenditure, which are the means to tip society through awareness and an enabling environment.