Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
An example of the risks associated with the quest for PTPs is the transition to a renewable energy economy that is driving the growing demand for batteries, solar panels and digital devices, all of which require mining of lithium, cobalt and other rare Earth minerals (Dutta et al., 2016). While this creates economic benefits for mining communities, it can also produce negative ecological, economic and social impacts in the near, medium and long-term (Hernandez & Newell, 2022; Manzetti and Mariasiu, 2015). The industrial mining sector has been accused of supporting state violence and corruption, polluting ecosystems and failing to relieve poverty, while the informal mining sector is known for ignoring occupational safety and health standards and human rights concerns (Calvão et al., 2021;Sovacool, 2019).
Other prominent examples of unintended consequences have been documented for a variety of cases linked to positive interventions for sustainability. Some large-scale renewable and bioenergy projects have resulted in significant local opposition (Cavicchi, 2018) and have resulted in the displacement of Indigenous peoples and local communities (UNPFII, 2023; Bullock et al., 2020) as well as impacting small-scale fisheries (Beckensteiner et al., 2023). Other potential impacts of such renewable energy projects include deforestation (Kraxner et al., 2013), biodiversity losses (Pedroli, et al., 2013) and competition for land and water resources; which can also lead to food insecurity (Hasegawa et al., 2020). Decarbonisation of the built environment, particularly the housing stock, has resulted in health impacts from poor indoor air quality, and fuel poverty (Davies and Oreszczyn, 2012). Carbon offset markets have driven afforestation in open ecosystems, resulting in negative impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem function and livelihoods (Bond et al., 2019).