3.3.1.2 Matching problem scales and institutions

The geographic scope of current impact governance institutions do not always match the geographic scale of the tipping elements. Earth system tipping processes take place at large (regional or continental) scales, typically affecting multiple countries (e.g. all countries with tropical coral reefs, all countries affected by the West African monsoon), but sometimes in different ways across regions (e.g. AMOC collapse would have different effects in the Northern and Southern hemispheres). This spatial scale of the tipping system has to be added to existing frameworks of multi-level impact governance (see Chapter 3.1), because dynamics at this scale will determine the spatial distribution of future impacts and the distribution of these impacts over time. Without adding this scale as a specific lens for anticipating, planning for, and responding to impacts, governance efforts will be less effective, especially at avoiding and minimising harm, and forced to react to, rather than anticipate, change.

In addition to spatial scale, the temporal characteristics of tipping processes are key for successful impact governance. Three phases of a tipping process can be distinguished: (1) pre-tipping (anticipation), (2) system reorganisation after the tipping point has been transgressed (responding to impacts), and (3) stabilisation of a new system (see Figure 3.3.1). While the prevention of tipping points (see Chapter 3.2) focuses only on the first phase, impact governance has to work across all three. Each phase presents different challenges and tasks for impact governance, requiring a distinct approach and the involvement of different actors, institutions and resources over time.

In the pre-tipping phase (1), when a tipping system is destabilised and a tipping point might be approaching, key governance tasks include learning and knowledge-capacity building, developing early warning systems and related science-policy interaction protocols, planning and preparation for specific expected impacts, resilience building, and exploring global governance approaches for well-understood climate impacts that could be exacerbated or accelerated by tipping processes (e.g. international migration and resettlement). Network connections can be developed, including links across different governance scales to ensure well-functioning relationships in case impact governance becomes necessary in the system reorganisation phase (2). Once a tipping point has been transgressed, a period of fundamental nonlinear change – systemic restructuring – sets in, driven and accelerated by self-amplifying feedback mechanisms. In this phase, direct impacts need to be addressed, e.g. with adaptation, disaster response, or loss and damage provisions. This is a turbulent period that can extend over multiple decades or even centuries. Impact governance in this phase can be extremely challenging because of the long time period of reorganisation (e.g. multiple decades). Constantly changing system conditions would present an unreliable and unpredictable environment for decision making, disabling established modes of (adaptation) planning. This period of greater volatility would require more flexible and continuous responses by governance actors and the ability to address cascading or compounding disasters. Adaptive governance approaches with frequent learning loops, adjustments of goals and policies would be most suitable in this phase. A key aim during phase 2 is the prevention of impact cascades through multiple social systems, including negative social tipping processes (see Chapter 2.3). When the process of reorganisation comes to an end, the Earth system will settle into a new stable state, which provides an alternative environment for communities and societies. In this stabilisation phase (3), governance will be focused on stabilising human-environment relationships with new patterns of behaviours, resource extraction and corresponding institutions and decision making.

For each tipping point, each of these phases can have varying lengths. For example, the tipping point for the tropical coral reefs could be transgressed in the 2030s, limiting the remaining pre-tipping phase to about a decade. The process of repeated mass bleaching events and coral reef dieback could extend over 3-5 decades (~2035-2075). During this time, various impacts would occur in different regions and countries at different points in time. For example, reef death in a region would be followed by declining fish stocks with consequences for livelihoods, food availability and cultural identities in affected fishing communities. This could lead to changes in economic activities (e.g. transition to agriculture or migration) and social organisation (e.g. shrinking of communities, changes in family authority structures). In some locations, there would be negative effects on tourism, associated economic activities and state (tax) income. Another tipping system, such as the GrIS, would have a very different temporal distribution of the three phases. It could also reach a tipping point in the 2030s, but the second phase of reorganisation – ice melt – could last several thousand years, not settling in its new stable state on a time horizon that is meaningful for today’s decision makers.