Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
The primary objective of any future system of governance for ESTPs is prevention. In contrast, the primary objective of any future system of governance with respect to PTPs in human (social) systems is promotion. However, in common with and in coordination with ESTP governance, a clear and persuasive logic and agenda for action, political coalition-building, and a multi-scale or polycentric approach and framework is needed (Ostrom, 2010; Jordan et al., 2018). A polycentric system is a nested hierarchy of authorities from local to global scales. Each authority has a degree of independence to set and enforce rules. For example, a local authority might be responsible for community-owned energy or food cooperatives; a region might be responsible for new transport and energy infrastructure, or for supporting and reskilling workers in a just transition; each nation might continue being responsible for setting GHG emissions targets and implementing plans to meet them, as they are now. These authorities would also interact, learn from each other, and coordinate efforts to ensure that, collectively, the global goals – for example, net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, or 50 per cent fewer people in poverty by 2030 – are achieved (Elsässer et al., 2022).