4.3.1.1 Introduction

The goal of energy systems is to provide energy services to end users. The main energy uses are for heat and electricity in industry and buildings and for transport (4.3.2). The industrial, residential and transport sectors together account for 70 per cent of the total global electricity consumption in 2019, and these sectors also are responsible for approximately 60 per cent of the worldwide carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions (IEA, 2021a; IEA, 2023a). The decarbonisation of the energy system is a key driver of overall decarbonisation efforts. Energy systems are socio-technical systems; they consist of the technologies that generate energy and convert and deliver this energy to end users, but also of the actors and institutions that perform and govern these tasks. Within energy systems, the subsystems that can undergo tipping dynamics can be found in technologies, but also in social systems when actors and institutions change demand patterns (Geels, 2023). 

Most consideration of tipping dynamics in energy systems concerns the price performance of different technologies (Otto et al., 2020; Sharpe and Lenton, 2021; Meldrum et al., 2023). Cost-parity has been reached and exceeded in many regions in a ‘new-for-new’ comparison of energy generation from wind and solar, versus incumbent fossil fuel generation, with the majority of new installed capacity in 2022 being renewable (IEA, 2022a; IRENA, 2023). In OECD countries, the resulting fast growth in wind and solar generation capacity has led to a reduction in fossil fuel demand in the electricity production, but not globally, as other nations increased fossil fuel demand (IEA, 2021b; OurWorldInData, 2022). Renewable energy generation sometimes faces curtailment and the mismatch of renewable supply with energy demand slows down replacement of fossil fuels, which benefit from their incumbent position. This shows that economic tipping points alone are not sufficient to realise rapid decarbonisation. Below, we explore how the tipping dynamics in wind and solar technology may initiate further positive tipping in the energy system, and we touch upon what this means for coal-intensive regions (Box 4.3.2) and we investigate advances relevant for industry (Box 4.3.2).