3.3.2.6 Secondary or cascading impacts

An additional challenge is that transgressing certain ESTPs or multiple interacting tipping points may trigger not only direct impacts, but also secondary impacts or impact cascades. This can include negative social tipping points (see Chapter 2.3 and 2.4). For instance, as a result of AMOC collapse, equatorial zones could experience ‘unliveable’ heat, failing agriculture and water shortages, which could trigger mass displacement, poverty traps and/or political instability. Regional impacts could be further aggravated by a collapse of the West African monsoon, which could displace many people and disrupt agriculture in highly populous areas like Nigeria (see Table 3.3.1, see also Chapter 2.2). Governance should aim to avoid impact cascades and negative social tipping dynamics.

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