3.1.1 A New governance agenda for Earth system tipping points

While attention to the threats posed by ESTPs is growing, explicit governance efforts to address them do not yet exist. Governance refers to rules, regulations, norms and institutions that structure and guide collective behaviour and actions. This includes the processes that create governance, which often involve politics, policymaking and mechanisms for holding actors accountable for their actions and inactions. We consider not only governments and their intergovernmental initiatives as key actors, but also corporate and industry bodies, civil society organisations, cities and municipalities, as well as transnational networks. 

The current landscape of global and regional (multilateral and non-state) environmental and sustainability governance efforts does not yet consider the specific challenges presented by ESTPs. For example, the constantly evolving regime complex for climate change centred on the UNFCCC is relevant and directly shapes tipping-point risks, especially through mitigation policies. But, even though tipping points have been given increasing attention in IPCC assessment reports (see Chapter 3.4), so far, the international climate change regime does not explicitly consider their risks in its goals and mechanisms. Similarly, the long-standing governance efforts for biodiversity, oceans, forests, the Arctic and Antarctic do not yet address ESTPs.

Given this status quo, the key task for the global community is the establishment of a governance agenda for ESTPs. To the extent possible, this requires adjusting existing institutions to account for ESTPs. But there might also be circumstances where such adjustments will not suffice, and novel frameworks, actors or institutions will be needed to anticipate, prevent the transgression of, and handle the adverse impacts of tipping processes. In some cases, such as climate change, the existing governance regimes are already complex, politically contested and cumbersome. Integrating a new set of challenges into their already-crowded agendas requires political attention, a set of committed actors, and (human, institutional and financial) resources, all of which are limited. Yet, this work is necessary and urgent and would re-frame and re-orient some of the existing governance efforts. Grounded in scientific knowledge, discussions about governing tipping points need to provide a clear and convincing logic for action. Strategic efforts are needed to build this agenda, helping various stakeholders develop an understanding of ESTPs and the risks they present, and fostering alliances of actors with shared perspectives.

Agenda-setting efforts need to consider several fundamental questions in this early stage of ESTP governance. These include:

• Goals. What could and should be done about tipping points? What are the most important governance goals?
• Actors. Who should be involved in tipping point governance? Who has responsibility, who is affected, who has relevant skills and capacities to address tipping points? How to ensure a voice for the most vulnerable or marginalised actors?
• Scales. At what scales should tipping point governance take place? How can multi-actor and cross-scale interactions be coordinated?
• Sites. What are suitable governance institutions to address ESTPs, and to what extent are new institutions needed? 
• Principles. What should be the governance logics and principles guiding the development of norms, processes and mechanisms?
• Resources. Who finances governance efforts related to ESTPs?
• Knowledge. What is the role of science, knowledge and predictive capacity in tipping point governance, and how should effective science-policy engagement be designed?

We begin to address some of these questions with a specific focus on the specific tipping points identified in this report, including the questions related to governance goals and principles (3.1.2), actors, sites and scales (3.1.3). The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of some of the likely political challenges of ESTP governance (3.1.4). The following chapters address some of these topics in more depth. Chapter 3.2 explores prevention of ESTPs as a central governance objective. Chapter 3.3 is concerned with the governance of tipping-point impacts, including adaptation, loss and damage, and migration. Chapter 3.4 addresses questions of knowledge production and science-policy interactions related to ESTPs.