Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Outside of the UNFCCC, intergovernmental efforts to manage SLCPs are an important dimension of global climate mitigation efforts, especially because they can have short-term benefits. SLCPs, including methane, tropospheric ozone and black carbon, can have disproportionate regional impacts on particular tipping systems. For example, black carbon deposition is particularly effective at melting snow and ice. Hence the mitigation of specific SLCPs can have a disproportionate benefit in preventing specific ESTPs. Mitigating SLCPs can also contribute to limiting global warming pressure on most ESTPs. According to Szopa et al., 2021, across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway climate scenarios, “the collective reduction of methane, ozone precursors, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can make a difference of 0.2°C with a very likely range of [0.1 to 0.4]°C in 2040 and 0.8°C with a very likely range of [0.5 to 1.3]°C at the end of the 21st Century”.
On global and regional levels, several institutions address SLCPs. A focal arena is the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), a state-led transnational partnership established under UNEP in 2011, which has become a key actor in global policy advocacy and knowledge exchange on SLCPs. In addition, other international fora have made concrete steps to mitigate specific SLCP s. For instance, in the Northern hemisphere, black carbon emissions are integrated into the targets to reduce particulate matter pollution under the Gothenburg Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone. In 2015, the Arctic Council agreed on the Framework for Action on Enhanced Black Carbon and Methane Emission Reductions. In 2016, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer was complemented with the Kigali Amendment on the phase-out of HFC s. Further, under the Paris Agreement, some countries have included SLCP mitigation targets or policies in their NDCs, and various global cooperation efforts, including the Global Methane Pledge (Sun et al., 2021), have been launched to address methane emissions. Elevated action on SLCPs is essential because the effects are felt more rapidly than those of CO2 abatement.
Other short-lived pollutants, such as sulphates and particulates, can have cooling effects, and their elimination would increase warming (also on short time scales) (IPCC, 2018). For example, reducing sulphate emissions from shipping for health reasons has a climate trade-off (Sofiev et al., 2018). While this creates challenges for policy design, it cannot justify the intentional release of sulphates or other particulates (even sea salt) in efforts to compensate for warming effects through deliberate geoengineering. In addition to the ethical differences between deliberate interventions and unexpected side effects (Morrow, 2014), we discuss the practical and political uncertainties of geoengineering below.