3.3.3.3 Early warning systems

Monitoring and early warning systems (EWS) aim to indicate and signal when tipping points are being approached. Anticipatory ESTP impact governance in the current pre-tipping phase (see Figure 3.3.1) should include the development of EWS that can provide timely information about changes in Earth systems that can guide decision making. Current evidence regarding the proximity of some ESTPs justifies a range of immediate actions, including the adjustment of adaptation frameworks and plans, and the development of response capacity and network connections. 

In this phase, adaptive approaches are useful to deal with the possibility of rapidly changing conditions (Franzke et al., 2022). For example, Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways (DAPP) (Haasnoot et al., 2013; Schlumberger et al., 2022) support adaptive actions before crossing a tipping point. EWS can support such adaptive governance with timely information about the status of the tipping system as it moves towards the tipping point. At the same time, EWS regarding the proximity of a tipping point would help actors make a timely transition in impact governance strategies to the second phase of the tipping process (reorganisation, see Figure 3.3.1). In that sense, early warning systems can support adaptive governance with rapid information flows and frequent learning loops between science and policy making (Galaz et al., 2016).

EWS can be identified not only for impending state shifts in Earth or ecological systems, but also in social systems. This type of information can be important for assessing the likelihood of ESTP impacts triggering negative social tipping dynamics. Systematic collection of event data, expert assessments, and analyses with advanced social science techniques are important steps towards implementing EWS of negative social tipping. (Grimm and Schneider, 2011) One area where EWS is well developed is conflict prevention. Governments can use risk and prediction models to predict violent conflicts, manage risk and consider future capabilities and responses (Muggah and Whitlock, 2022). Also advanced are early warning systems for food insecurity and famines, such as the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).

There are, however, important limitations in our ability to build reliable early warning systems. Tipping points are extremely difficult to predict (see Chapter 1.6 and 2.5). While signals for moving closer to a tipping point can be detected, they do not indicate when (under what conditions) the tipping point will be reached. In many cases, scientists might only be able to observe and confirm the transgression of a tipping point years or decades after the fact. Therefore, early warning systems face major obstacles to become effective decision-support tools. There are also issues around data inequality when it comes to social tipping.

Data from low-income countries is often missing, incomplete or of poor quality. This enormously disadvantages these countries in systemic risk assessment. To address data inequality, it is important to support low-income countries in building capacities for data collection and analysis.

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