Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Food and land use is one of the key systems (4.3.3) that can create tipping dynamics for accelerated decarbonisation. Self-reinforcing feedback loops such as increasing returns and technological reinforcement can progressively push an inadequate into a more sustainable food system (Lenton et al., 2022; Fesenfeld et al., 2022).
The role of society is considered a key driver of transformation in the food system, as widespread behaviour changes towards lower waste, sustainable diets and diversified protein sources can not only reduce the GHG emissions of the agriculture sector but also create synergies for achieving multiple SDGs, such as alleviating hunger, improving public health and averting biodiversity loss, and reducing the intensity of the tradeoffs between them (van Vuuren et al., 2018; Leclere et al., 2020; Obersteiner et al., 2016).
As dietary behaviour changes reduce land pressure, fertiliser consumption is expected to decline, and adoption of diversified and regenerative farming practices are expected to increase (Gosnell et al., 2019), as well as ecological restoration and associated carbon sequestration, leading to more rapid decarbonisation in agriculture (4.3.3.5). In climate vulnerable, low-income economies, these feedbacks can also drive diversification of livelihoods, new economic opportunities, and other social benefits (4.3.3.4). Social norms have been repeatedly shown to be a key driver of widespread dietary changes in model-based studies (Eliot, 2022; Eker et al., 2019). Public procurement of sustainable food is considered a strategic intervention to accelerate the adoption of new norms (UNGSDR, 2023), and food labelling and certification in alternative food networks (Lenton et al., 2022) is key for facilitating market penetration of alternative proteins. Therefore, such triggers in society and policy can have cascading impacts on intensified and accelerated transformation of food and land use systems.