2.3.5.1 Earth system destabilisation and violent conflict

Although the causal link between climate extreme events and violent conflicts remains considerably debated (Selby et al., 2017; Buhaug et al,. 2014; Solow, 2013), research nevertheless suggests that conflicts at various levels are affected by accelerating changes in the Earth System. Though not the only cause (Ge et al., 2022; Scartozzi, 2020; Mach et al., 2019; Sakaguchi et al., 2017), Earth system destabilisation undermines human livelihoods and security, because it increases population vulnerabilities (e.g. extreme events, food/water scarcity, see Chapter 2.2), grievances, and political tensions through an array of indirect – at times non-linear – pathways, thereby increasing human insecurity and the risk of violent conflict (Döring and Hall, 2023; Ide et al., 2023; Buhaug and von Uexkull, 2021; Koubi, 2019; Baalen and Mobjörk, 2017; Kelley et al., 2015; Hsiang and Meng 2014; Scheffran et al., 2012). Climate events have direct and indirect impacts on human livelihoods (e.g. life, health, income, assets) and capabilities (e.g. money, resources, vehicles, equipment, technology). These impacts will be further amplified by Earth system tipping points (see Chapter 2.2) and could trigger human responses that can stabilise or destabilise regional hot spots (Scheffran, 2020). Even short-lasting extreme weather events can cause irreversible damage to agriculture and unsettle human comfort, causing economic decline. For instance, the risk of simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions is rising with escalating climate change, exacerbated by various others factors (e.g. poor governance of water scarcity, failed subsidies etc.), threatening global food security and ultimately human security (Kornhuber et al., 2023). Over time an erosion of livelihoods could either exacerbate existing problems in fragile states, or be the beginning of a downward spiral of violence or a vicious circle of conflict escalation (Buhaug and von Uexkull, 2021). But there remain gaps in understanding the specific mechanisms, dynamics and confounding factors within and across regions and populations. Worth noting is the extreme unequal distribution of conflict risks which are increased through Earth system destabilisation (Koubi, 2019).

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