Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
Although the causal link between climate extreme events and violent conflicts remains considerably debated (Selby et al., 2017; Buhaug et al,. 2014; Solow, 2013), research nevertheless suggests that conflicts at various levels are affected by accelerating changes in the Earth System. Though not the only cause (Ge et al., 2022; Scartozzi, 2020; Mach et al., 2019; Sakaguchi et al., 2017), Earth system destabilisation undermines human livelihoods and security, because it increases population vulnerabilities (e.g. extreme events, food/water scarcity, see Chapter 2.2), grievances, and political tensions through an array of indirect – at times non-linear – pathways, thereby increasing human insecurity and the risk of violent conflict (Döring and Hall, 2023; Ide et al., 2023; Buhaug and von Uexkull, 2021; Koubi, 2019; Baalen and Mobjörk, 2017; Kelley et al., 2015; Hsiang and Meng 2014; Scheffran et al., 2012). Climate events have direct and indirect impacts on human livelihoods (e.g. life, health, income, assets) and capabilities (e.g. money, resources, vehicles, equipment, technology). These impacts will be further amplified by Earth system tipping points (see Chapter 2.2) and could trigger human responses that can stabilise or destabilise regional hot spots (Scheffran, 2020). Even short-lasting extreme weather events can cause irreversible damage to agriculture and unsettle human comfort, causing economic decline. For instance, the risk of simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions is rising with escalating climate change, exacerbated by various others factors (e.g. poor governance of water scarcity, failed subsidies etc.), threatening global food security and ultimately human security (Kornhuber et al., 2023). Over time an erosion of livelihoods could either exacerbate existing problems in fragile states, or be the beginning of a downward spiral of violence or a vicious circle of conflict escalation (Buhaug and von Uexkull, 2021). But there remain gaps in understanding the specific mechanisms, dynamics and confounding factors within and across regions and populations. Worth noting is the extreme unequal distribution of conflict risks which are increased through Earth system destabilisation (Koubi, 2019).