4.5.3 Harnessing the power of cascades

Supporting positive cascades is a challenging task, in particular when considering the complex interaction with negative (undesirable) cascades in the human-earth system, which can disrupt positive cascades, but which in turn can help contain negative cascades. Therefore, the key elements of intervention design for positive tipping (4.2.3) to balance reinforcing and dampening feedback mechanisms to avoid unintended consequences are also instrumental in harnessing the power of cross-system cascades.

Integrated human-Earth system models capturing the feedback mechanisms that are identified as potential drivers of tipping dynamics can support understanding of the role of various feedback mechanisms, hence help intervention design for tipping cascades. Scientific literature contains several examples of modelling studies that explore positive tipping dynamics and interventions in specific contexts (Hochrainer-Stigler et al., 2020; Niamir et al., 2020; Eker et al., 2019), using various methodologies such as system dynamics (top-down feedback perspective), agent-based modelling (behavioural rules) and social network analysis (spread of cascading events). An integrated modelling framework that captures the cascades across sociotechnical, socioecological and sociopolitical systems discussed above (4.5.1) is however still missing. Moreover, the complexity of integrated systems modelling might come at a cost of their interpretability and practical usefulness (Figure 4.5.2). Strong stakeholder engagement might be needed when designing modelling interfaces and scenarios, including dimensions of political economy, power, distribution and justice. Participatory approaches are valuable not only in utilising models in decision support, but also in harnessing the power of cascades by establishing a shared understanding and systems thinking among multiple actors, as well as supporting cooperative governance.

Cooperative governance coordinates, regulates, manages and controls interdependent social and political relations among multiple actors, including coalitions and organisations of governmental, intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations, all pursuing their own goals and interests. To overcome collective action problems and the tragedy of the commons, various mechanisms offer promising signs of supporting positive tipping cascades: implementing co-benefits and co-evolution; neighbourhood collaboration; transnational initiatives like city networks; coordination of goals, efforts and actions for mitigation and adaptation; bottom-up participation complementary to top-down global negotiations; and regulations and norms. Identifying conflict potentials is important to prevent escalation towards a cycle of conflict and instead induce cycles of cooperation between stakeholders. This depends on the societal responses, involving adaptive agents following their motivations, capabilities and behavioural rules.

Governance of tipping cascades is facing tremendous uncertainties about natural and social impacts and responses (Franzke et al., 2022). Diverse sources of knowledge can help to contain this uncertainty, including scientific data and modelling as well as local and Indigenous knowledge based on experience, mobilised in participatory approaches and collective learning. Agency benefits from constructive and mutually adaptive behaviour of agents to induce positive tipping cascades across the socio-technical, -ecological, economic, and -political system interactions.

The real difficulty and the major political effort, though, lies in getting to that point in the first place. In order to begin to understand how to get there, and to design and operationalise positive tipping across socio-political sectors, scales and institutions, we can start with understanding the ecologies and dynamics of the key actors and coalitions. We can then use systems thinking across all sectors, scales and research domains to create a shared understanding of how everyone – including local authorities, political parties, artists, NGOs, businesses, financial investors, trade unions, farmers, faith groups, academics, journalists, lawyers and social movement organisers – can contribute to rapid climate action by leveraging their role in positive tipping.