2.3.1 Introduction

In recent years a range of climate change and social development processes, often compounding, have been observed to interact and affect social, economic and political systems. For instance, there is a trend of weakening and retreat of democracies worldwide (Freedom House, 2022; International IDEA, 2022) and some studies (e.g. Rahman et al., 2022) suggest a link with global warming. Not every trend exhibits social tipping dynamics, yet such trends can be indicative of underlying processes that may be approaching negative social tipping points. We regard the social tipping process as negative if the phase transition or the resulting new equilibrium leads to further destabilisation of the Earth system, which has potentially catastrophic consequences for human societies and ecological systems (IPCC, 2022; Lenton et al., 2023).

Disentangling the social dynamics and identifying social tipping processes and drivers is challenging, and research on social tipping, particularly in the context of climate change, has predominantly focused on ‘positive’ social tipping points (see Section 4). But research into negative social tipping is urgently needed, as these may impede the realisation of positive tipping points that are crucial for larger societal transformation (Spaiser et al., 2023). Figure 2.3.1 provides an overview of the tipping elements (TE), i.e. social subsystems, where negative tipping processes (TP) can occur. The figure also indicates potential feedback relations between various negative tipping processes; this will be further explored in the subsequent Chapter 2.4.

We will focus here on five main negative social tipping processes identified in Figure 2.3.1: anomie (TP1.1), radicalisation and polarisation (TP1.2), displacement (TP2.1), conflict (TP3.1) and financial destabilisation (TP4.1). We do not claim to have captured all possible negative social tipping points; other social subsystems could experience negative tipping, e.g. breakdown of (certain) global supply chains (Marcucci et al., 2022) or of the public health system (at least in certain areas) triggered, for instance, by an extreme heat event or the breakout of a disease due to climate change (Skinner et al., 2023). 

We focus here on possible negative social tipping points that could have feedback effects on the Earth system. In each of the subchapters we will show how each of these phenomena can be impacted by rapid changes in the Earth system, in particular Earth system tipping points, but we will also discuss to what extent the tipping of these phenomena can then feedback on the Earth system itself, either directly or indirectly through mediating mechanisms. Therefore, the focus is on social processes that can reinforce the very ecological conditions that contributed decisively to the emergence of these social processes. 

All the phenomena discussed here are extremely complex and have multiple drivers. In our discussion we will focus on Earth system destabilisation/tipping points as a driver for negative social tipping on top of other important factors and drivers, such as (rising) inequality and vulnerability, institutional failure, unequal power relations, etc, which we cannot explore here in full depth. Some of these additional social drivers will be discussed in Chapter 2.4, as they can drive breaching of various thresholds, both in the Earth system and in the social system. Future research on negative social tipping should seek to understand the interplay of these multiple drivers.