Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
In the Summary Report:
• Narrative summary
• Global tipping points infographic
• Key messages
• Key Recommendations
Executive summary
• Section 1
• Section 2
• Section 3
• Section 4
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
In this section:
• Foreword
• Introduction
• Key Concepts
• Approach
• References
Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points, followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system tipping points.
Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited attention).
A broad set of global governance institutions is involved in addressing the impacts of global environmental change, such as climate change. Many of these will need to consider adopting responsibilities related to ESTP impacts in their mandates. This includes, for example, the UNFCCC (adaptation, loss and damage, finance, climate resilience), the CBD, the international development community, especially the UN Development Programme, and international development banks, the OECD and international financial institutions (World Bank, International Monetary Fund). Others will likely also be affected, e.g. the World Trade Organization or institutions governing international security. Impact governance is a multi-scale issue (see Chapter 3.1), with countless important actors at regional, national, and local scales (Petzold et al., 2023). Correspondingly, non-governmental and civil society organisations, transnational networks, and private-sector initiatives working in these domains will also need to consider engagement with ESTPs and their expected impacts. Below, we discuss approaches to ESTP impact governance with a specific focus on the UNFCCC and its multi-scale linkages for the governance of adaptation, loss and damage and corresponding capacity building and finance (3.3.3).
In the current pre-tipping phase of impact governance, the following questions can motivate governance actors: